中国城市绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响因素

绿色发展作为化解自然环境约束、破解经济转型难题、支撑和实现全球可持续发展目标（SDGs）关键。正逐渐成为中国生态文明建设、美丽中国建设和全球经济转型与重构的重要指导理念。在梳理绿色发展概念与内涵基础上,采用SBM-Undesirable模型、泰尔指数和空间马尔科夫链等方法,对2005-2015年中国城市绿色发展效率时空分异特征及其演变过程进行了测度与刻画,并进一步耦合自然与人文因素定量探讨了人地关系地域系统下的影响机制。研究表明：① 2005-2015年中国城市绿色发展效率稳步提升,由0.475增加到0.523,总体提高了10%,时序上呈现“W”型波动增加的阶段性演变特征。② 中国城市绿色发展效率呈现出“东中西”阶梯状递减的区域差异规律,不同类型城市群具有“国家级>区域性>地方性”倒金字塔式集群增长特征,形成了“超大城市>特大城市>大城市>中等城市>小城市”稳定等级规模结构。③ 中国城市绿色发展效率空间集聚特征显著,高效率城市存在正向溢出效应,低效率城市则负向溢出影响,“高高集聚、高带动低”的空间俱乐部趋同现象较为凸显,不同类型城市演化存在显著的路径依赖与时空惯性。④ 人地关系地域系统视角下,人文社会因素对城市绿色发展效率影响程度大于自然本底要素,其中经济实力、产业结构、开放程度和城市气温呈现积极促进作用。

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban green development efficiency in China

Green development is pivotal to resolving natural environmental constraints, solving national economic transition, and supporting and realizing the United Nations sustainable development goals. It is gradually growing into a crucial guideline for China's ecological civilization construction, "Beautiful China" development, and global economic transition and restructure. Based on a thorough review of the concept of green development, this paper accurately depicts a full picture of China's spatio-temporal patterns of urban green development efficiency (UGDE) in 2005-2015 by using SBM-Undesirable, the Theil index and the Spatial Markov Chain methods. Moreover, the influencing mechanism has been further discussed based on a quantitative analysis of both natural and human factors. Our results demonstrate that: (1) UGDE increased steadily by 10% from 0.475 in 2005 to 0.523 in 2015. And temporally, it shows a pattern of "W"-shaped fluctuated growth. (2) Spatially, UGDE decreased from eastern to central China, and further to western China. Besides, there is an inverted pyramid pattern of "national level > regional level > local level" urban agglomeration in UDGE growth. Moreover, there is a steady urban scale structure from super city to small city in UDGE. (3) There is an evident concentration of cities with high-level and low-level UDGE, indicating a significant influence of path dependence. (4) Quantitatively speaking, compared to natural factors, human factors such as economy size, industry structure, and openness level play a more important role in influencing the UDGE.