GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式预报与卫星遥感监测结果对比

GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式和卫星遥感监测是目前沙尘暴监测预报业务中重要的工具.本文使用天气学检验方法,对中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所目前使用的GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式2012年春季沙尘天气预报情况以及FY-2D卫星遥感产品沙尘指数IDDI的监测效果进行检验评估.结果表明:沙尘模式在西北沙尘暴预报业务中具有很好的预报参考价值,卫星遥感沙尘指数也具有较好的监测效果,但两者均存在一定的问题.沙尘模式对大范围沙尘暴过程有较好的预报能力,但对沙尘强度预报偏强;卫星遥感沙尘指数虽然不能定性地表示沙尘强度,但是在一定程度上能够反映沙尘强度的变化,不过反映沙尘强度的数值及其分布区间还有待于进一步完善.卫星遥感在南疆盆地常会将大片深厚的沙尘气溶胶区域误判为云区,造成对沙尘天气特别是沙尘暴天气未能识别的现象,另外IDDI指数不能用于夜间沙尘监测.

The Comparison of the Prediction Efficiency of GRAPES-SDM Dust-Storm Model and the Satellite Remote Sensing Monitoring

The GRAPES-SDM model and the satellite remote sensing monitoring are important tools in sand-storm monitoring and forecasting. By comparing the forecast results of the GRAPES-SDM model and the dust index (IDDI)of the FY-2D satellite remote sensing products and the observed data on sand-storm weather in North China in the springs of 2012, we tested the forecast products and the remote sensing products with synoptic verification method. The results showed that the forecasting of the GRAPES-SDM model was accurate, and the remote sensing monitoring also has a good monitoring effect in North China in the spring. But there were also some problems, such as GRAPES-SDM model could forecast dust weather in Hexi Corridor of Gansu province with less intensity than that observed, but in Inner Mongolia with stronger intensity,and the model could forecast dust weathers in South Xinjiang Basin with less narrow belt range and less intensity than that observed. The dust index of satellite remote sensing could reflect the change of intensity of dust though not qualitative representation of dust concentration to some extent, but its ability of reflecting the value and distribution of sand strength interval had yet to be further perfected, and some dust aerosols often were misclassified as clouds in South Xinjiang so that the satellite remote sensing products could not recognized dust weather. At last dust monitoring IDDI index could not be used for the night.