城市精明发展与生态效率的协同测度及交互响应——以中国276个地级以上城市为例

城市发展与生态环境存在复杂的动态交互耦合过程,厘清精明发展与生态效率的协同发展关系及交互响应机理,是区域可持续发展的关键环节。本文以2003—2015年中国276个地级以上城市为研究对象,采用多指标综合评价法、Super-SBM模型、灰色关联模型和面板VAR模型对中国城市精明发展与生态效率的协同发展和交互响应关系进行综合测度。研究表明：① 城市精明发展呈现从沿海向内陆阶梯递减的空间演变趋势,多个城市群具有较高的城市精明发展指数。② 生态效率与精明发展的空间变化具有一定的耦合特征,沿海地区南北方向呈现出较高水平的“生态弧线”城市带。③ 城市精明发展与生态效率具有显著的关联性特征,协同发展关系有下降趋势。④ 城市精明发展与生态效率存在双向交互的Granger因果关系,具有正向的交互响应关系,且存在一定的路径依赖特征和惯性发展趋势。⑤ 长期而言,城市精明发展对生态效率变动的影响更大。

Dynamic coordinated relationships and interactive effects between urban smart development and ecological efficiency: A case study of 276 cities at prefecture level and above in China

There is a complex dynamic interaction process between urban development and ecological environment. Urban smart development is considered as a model of emphasizing intensive and compact development in space to promote environmental improvement and ecological restoration in the long-term growth. And ecological efficiency refers to efficient optimization and configuration through input of capital, resources and other factors while reducing pollutant emissions and maximizing regional economic output. To clarify the dynamic coordinated relationships and interactive effects between smart development and ecological efficiency is a key link in the regional sustainable development. Taking 276 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2003 to 2015 as objects, this paper comprehensively measures dynamic coordinated and interactive response relationships between urban smart development and ecological efficiency in China by using multi-index comprehensive evaluation method, Super-SBM model, gray correlation analysis and panel VAR model. Research results are shown as follows: 1) Urban smart development presents a decreasing trend of spatial evolution from coastal areas to inland areas and the level of urban smart development gradually improves, and the trend of urban smart development year by year has obvious improvement with a higher urban smart development index in many urban agglomeration areas of China. 2) Ecological efficiency has a certain coupling characteristic with the spatial change trend of smart development, which presents a higher level of the "ecological arc" urban belt in the north and south directions of the coastal areas in China. 3) urban smart development and ecological efficiency have significant correlation characteristics, and the coordinated development relationship between urban smart development and ecological efficiency has a downward trend. 4) The test results for Granger causality demonstrate that there is a two-way interactive Granger causality between urban smart development and ecological efficiency, and the results for PVAR model show that there is a positive interactive response relationship between urban smart development and ecological efficiency, which has a certain path-dependent characteristics and inertia development trend. 5) In the long run, urban smart development has a greater impact on the change of ecological efficiency. It is recommended that cities should focus on long-term goals and formulate rational development policies by optimizing efficient allocation of elements and promoting ecological efficiency through smart development.