状态空间衡量区域承载状况初探——以环渤海地区为例

本文在回顾承载力研究的国内外发展基础上,指出单因素承载力对区域实际承载力的反映存在一定的局限性。作者通过利用综合多种因素的状态空间法求出综合的区域承载力,并以资源、环境与经济社会发展矛盾比较突出的环渤海地区为例,求算出环渤海地区现实的承载力情况。结果显示,环渤海地区目前资源环境处于超载状态,特别是水土资源和生态环境的超载情况非常严重。最后探讨了提高区域承载力的对策措施

Study on regional carrying capacity: theory, method and example-take the Bohai-Rim area as example

On the basis of retrospection of the internal and external studies on carrying capacity, this paper points out that study on solo factor carrying capacity such as land carrying capacity, resources and environmental carrying capacity is very limited in reflecting the real regional carrying capacity. It tries to resolve the problem through introducing the status space method to calculate the synthetic regional carrying capacity. That is, this paper discusses synthetically how much the regional land, resources and environment could carry under certain economic development and social improvement level. Taking the Bohai Rim area, which has comparatively poignant contradiction between the resources and environment and economic social development, as example, this paper computes the real status quo of its regional carrying capacity. The result shows that the resources and environmental carrying capacity has been surpassed. Among them, water, land resources, and eco environment which are the essential basis of economic development have the most serious problem. The mineral and energy resources are very near to their upper limit of carrying capacity. In the last part of this paper, the drawbacks and problems which need improving further are discussed. We point out the key of using this way to effectively weigh a certain region's carrying capacity lies on how to accurately determine the reasonable value of each index describing regional PRED system and the relationship between the present values and the reasonable ones.