上海城市废弃物增长的环境库兹涅茨特征研究

对上海1978～2000年人均GDP与城市废弃物增长数据的拟合计算表明,上海城区废弃物增长与人均GDP之间存在比较明显的环境库兹涅茨二次曲线特征。理论计算显示:上海城市废弃物环境库兹涅茨曲线的转折点为人均GDP约33441元,对应的城市废弃物达到相应的理论计算峰值约779万吨。上海的人均GDP在2000年已经达到34547元,相应的城市废弃物清运量为741万吨,略为低于理论拟合计算峰值;说明上海城市废弃物增长的演变在2000年前后的一段时期,总体已经处于环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论峰值转折点附近。可以认为,随着上海人均GDP的持续增长,今后一段时期内上海城市废弃物的总量增长会逐步减缓,而建立体现生产者责任的市场调控废弃物管理公共政策,将有利于加快这一趋势。

Environmental Kuznets characteristics of municipal solid waste growth in Shanghai city

This paper mainly approached the famous hypothesis-Environment Kuznets Curve concerning municipal solid waste discharge in urban area of Shanghai. The municipal solid waste dealt with in this paper especially included construction waste and domestic waste, which come from business, public utilities, office and households in Shanghai city area. Correlation analysis between the annual statistics of per capita GDP and total municipal solid waste discharge in Shanghai from 1978 to 2000 showed that an obvious invert U-shape Kuznets curve existed between these two indicators. The simulated calculation illustrated that the turning point of this Environment Kuznets Curve would be per capita GDP RMB 33 441 yuan, at which the corresponding waste discharge would be over 7.79 million tons. In 2000, per capita GDP in Shanghai reached 34 547 yuan, the annual municipal solid waste disposal cleared was 7.41 million tons that was less than the theoretical simulation data. It indicated that the turning point occurred around the year 2000 and Shanghai will enter into the new period, in which municipal solid waste discharge will show a gentle decreasing tendency following economic growth. This paper further discussed the waste components changes in Shanghai city. The ration of construction waste that reached the top level in 1998 accounted for 42.8%,which was the reflection of great change in Shanghai city construction throughout the 1990s. Data analysis also showed that the decreasing rate of municipal solid waste disposal cleared per unit GDP was much lower than the GDP growth rate. It is important to regulate the trend of municipal solid waste discharge in Shanghai. To implement the policies such as waste producers taking their full responsibilities,promoting more waste services through market activities and setting multi-investment model to improve solid waste collection and disposal, that will benefit a lot for Shanghai municipal solid waste control.