近20年来我国区域发展政策及其效果的对比研究

在对近 2 0年来我国区域发展政策进行简要回顾的基础上 ,文中利用计量经济学模型方法和有关统计数据 ,对我国对外开放这一区域发展政策对东部沿海地区和中西部地区的经济发展作用进行了定量研究 ,首次从量的方面探讨了对外开放政策对东部和中西部地区经济发展的作用效果及其差异。通过计量经济模型模拟计算 ,2 0世纪 80年代初至 1 999年对外开放政策对我国东部沿海地区GDP的直接作用率达到 2 1 39% ,使其相应的GDP年增长速度由9 1 %提高到 1 0 2 4 % ,提高了 1 1 4个百分点。而对于我国中西部地区 ,由于对外开放较晚 ,对外开放政策的力度远不如东部沿海地区的大 ,从 90年代初期开始的沿江、沿边对外开放政策对我国中西部地区GDP的直接作用率为 4 2 4 % ,仅为前者的 2 0 %左右 ,使其相应的GDP年增长速度也仅由 8 96 %提高到 9 2 7% ,仅提高 0 31个百分点 ,两者的差距非常明显。

China's regional development policy and its sound effects on the economic development of coastal zones and central &|western areas over the past two decades

China's regional development policy has been changed greatly over the past two decades, in this paper the sound effects of opening-up policy to the outside world on the economic development of coastal zones and the central & western areas in China have been calculated using econometric modelsrespectively. From the early 1980s to the year 1999, the GDP of the coastal zones increased from about 179.80 billion RMB yuan to 1146.84 billion yuan. During the period the total increment of the GDP amounted up to 967.04 billion yuan, in which about 206.81 billion yuan is contributed by the opening-up policy. The average contribution rate of the opening-up policy to the GDP of the coastal zones is about 21.39%.Accordingly the average annual GDP growth rate of the coastal zonesincreased from 9.1% to 10.24%. And the contribution of the policy on the average annual GDP growth rate of the coastal zoneswas 1.14 percentage points. However, before the early 1990s the central & western areasin China did not open up to the outside world. From 1993 to 1999, the GDP of the central & western areasin China increased from about 443.31 billion yuan to 824.27 billion yuan. During the period the total increment of the GDP amounted up to 380.96 billion yuan, in which about 16.16 billion yuan is contributed by the policy. The average contribution rate of the policy to the GDP of the central & western areas is only 4.24%.Meanwhile the average annual GDP growth rate of the central & western areasonly increased from 8.96% to 9.27%. And the contribution of the policy on the average annual GDP growth rate of the central & western areaswas 0.31 percentage points. The reasons for this big gap is mainly because the opening-up time of the central & western areas was much later than that of coastal zones, and there were great differences among the preferentialpolicies enjoyed by the central & western areasand coastal zones in China in opening-up to the outside world.