收缩情境下城市用地结构时空格局演变及动力机制——以中国东北地区为例

构建城市用地结构时空格局演变分析框架,引入信息熵和偏移份额模型定量剖析2000—2017年中国东北地区城市用地结构时空格局演变特征,通过计量经济模型分阶段对比分析收缩情境下东北地区城市用地结构演变的动力机制。结果表明：东北地区城市用地总面积持续增长,用地结构信息熵整体呈现先上升、后下降的趋势。2011年以后,城市用地结构有序性、多样性不断提升,单一优势地类主导作用显著下降。公共设施用地、道路交通用地及绿地与广场用地为增长型地类,是东北地区城市用地规模扩张和结构演变的主要动因。用地结构竞争性偏移量具有显著的空间非均衡性,总体与辽中南和哈长两大城市群空间格局基本吻合,新增城市用地的集聚效应不断凸显。城市人口规模变迁、城市经济发展水平提升、产业结构升级与城市居住条件改善对城市用地结构演变具有显著的正向驱动作用。收缩情境下,各因素的拉动作用逐渐减弱,国家宏观政策的约束力不断增强,城市公共服务水平改善的强需求成为驱动用地结构演变的外在动力。

Spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of urban land use structure with the context of urban shrinkage:Evidence from Northeast China

Based on the analysis framework of spatio-temporal evolution of urban land use structure with the context of shrinkage, this study introduced the Information Entropy Model and the Shift-Share Model to examine the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of urban land use structure in Northeast China, using panel data from 2000 to 2017. The dynamic mechanism of structural evolution of urban land use in Northeast China was analyzed by econometric model. The results demonstrated that: (1) the total area of urban land in Northeast China increased continuously since 2000, while the information entropy of urban land use structure increased firstly and then decreased. After 2011, with the improvement of diversity and equilibrium degree of urban land use structure, the order of urban land use structure has been enhanced and the leading role of single dominant land type has been significantly reduced. (2) The three types of urban land, i.e., land for public facilities, land for road, street and transportation and land for green space and square were growing, which is the main reason for the rapid increase of the total urban land area in the study region. (3) There exists significant spatial imbalance of competitiveness of different urban land types, which evolve constantly in different regions, and the overall spatial pattern is basically consistent with the distribution pattern of the two major urban agglomerations of central and southern Liaoning city groups and Harbin-Changchun megalopolis. Meanwhile the agglomeration effect of new-added urban land area is increasingly prominent. (4) The dynamic change of urban population, urban economic development, the upgrading and adjustment of industrial structure, and the improvement of urban living conditions all have significant positive impact on the dynamic evolution of urban land use structure in Northeast China. In the context of urban shrinkage, the effect of various factors is gradually weakened, and the binding force of national macro policies is increasing. Meanwhile, the demand for the improvement of urban public services has become the external driving force for the evolution of urban land use structure. To realize the overall revitalization of Northeast China, differentiated measures should be taken to reverse the trend of population loss, and boost the vitality of regional economic development.