清代（1816—1911年）霍乱流行的时空特征、危险模拟与边界探测

霍乱是清代1820年左右传入中国的新型烈性传染病,迄今仍是人类生命健康安全的重大威胁之一。本文运用ArcGIS时空分析、MaxEnt生态位模拟、BoundarySeer边界探测等方法对清代的霍乱流行进行分析,结果表明：① 清代霍乱的流行频度为77%,对整个清代疫灾的流行贡献了约21.32%的广度。② 霍乱在中国的适生范围广,东部沿海为最佳适生区;中国不同区域霍乱流行的危险等级差异显著,并呈现自东向西递减、南方高于北方的总体特征;距海距离、海拔高程、日照时数、最高气温是影响霍乱流行的主要因素,贡献率分别为29.3%、22.4%、16.1%和7.7%。③ 霍乱流行的边界性特征明显,第一边界是以凤阳为圆心,以凤阳-夹江直线距离为半径（约1300 km）与国界线或海岸线围合的圆弧圈,界内包含97.65%的霍乱流行事件;第二边界参照霍乱高适生度分布线,该线迤东包括中国东、中部省份;第三边界是由霍乱主要网络构成的围合区,总体上掩及环渤海、长三角和珠三角等东部沿海一线。

Spatial-temporal characteristics,danger simulation and boundary detection of cholera in the late Qing Dynasty(1816-1911)

Cholera was a new type of severe infectious disease which was introduced into China around 1820 in the Qing Dynasty(1644-1911),and the"localization"process was completed rapidly.At present,it is still one of the major threats to the health and safety of human life,and sometimes it causes heavy casualties.In this paper,the spatial-temporal analysis,danger simulation,and boundary detection methods are used to analyze the cholera epidemic in the late Qing Dynasty(1816-1911).The results showed that:1)because of the strong intervention of cholera,the frequency of the cholera was 77%in the last 100 years in the late Qing Dynasty(1816-1911)which was equivalent to outbreak every 1.3 years,and the contribution rate to the epidemic breadth promotion in the late Qing Dynasty(1816-1911)was about 21.32%,which means that nearly a quarter of the epidemics in the whole Qing Dynasty(1644-1911)were caused by cholera.2)Cholera had a wide range of suitable habitats in China of the late Qing Dynasty(1816-1911),and the eastern coast was the best suitable habitat.The risk level of cholera epidemic in China was high,and the risk level gradually decreased from east to west,and the risk level in the south was higher than that in the north.There were many factors influencing cholera epidemic,in which the distance from sea level,elevation,sunshine hours,and the maximum temperature were the main factors,and their contribution rates were 29.3%,22.4%,16.1%and 7.7%,respectively.This indicates that cholera epidemic was sensitive to geographic factors such as temperature,water source,sunshine and topography.3)The borderline characteristics of cholera epidemic were obvious in the late Qing Dynasty(1816-1911).The first border was a circular arc with Fengyang as the center and FengyangJiajiang as the radius(the linear distance about 1300 km),which contains about 97.65%of cholera epidemic in this area.The second border was the borderline of cholera high-suitability area,which includes eastern and central provinces of China,such as Anhui,Jiangxi,Hubei,Hunan,and so on.The third border is the enclosed area with the main cholera network as the standard,covering the Bohai Sea,central China,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta.Almost the entire eastern coastline was covered.