安塞县退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同效应的分析——基于VAR模型的实证分析

针对黄土丘陵区退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同性研究滞后的现实,运用向量自回归模型(VAR),通过对安塞县1995–2014年相关数据的分析,明确了其协同效应。退耕还林工程结果表明:退耕还林工程对农业生态经济社会系统产生作用的同时,农业生态经济社会系统的改变也反作用于退耕还林工程,明确了退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统之间存在协同互馈的效应。在这一协同过程中,退耕还林工程对农业生态系统的贡献率达34%,明显高于退耕对农业经济系统、农业社会系统的贡献率;农业经济系统对退耕还林工程的影响程度最为明显,贡献率最高点达55.3%且常年稳定,这些都与现实状况相一致。基于此,为了推进退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统的优化耦合,需要在增强生态功能基础上,通过发展碳汇产业促使生态功能的经济显化,构建以提高区域内资源的有效利用率为核心的农业产业–资源链。

Synergic Relationship between the Grain for Green Program and the Agricultural Eco-economic System in Ansai County based on the VAR model

Understanding the synergic relationship between the Grain for Green Program(GGP)and the agricultural eco-economic system is important for designing an optimized agricultural eco-economic system and developing a highly efficient structure of an agricultural industry chain and a resource chain.This study used Ansai County time series data from 1995 to 2014,applied vector autoregressive(VAR)models and used tools such as Granger causality,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,to explore the synergy between the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic system.The results revealed a synergic and reciprocal relationship between the GGP and the agroeconomic system.The contribution of the GGP to the agroecosystem reached 34%,which was significantly higher than either its largest contribution to the agroeconomic system(20.8%)or its peak contribution to the agrosocial system(26.7%).The agroeconomic system had the most prominent influence on the GGP,with a year-round stable contribution of up to 55.3%.These results were consistent with reality.However,the impact of the GGP on the agricultural eco-economic system was weaker than the effect of the agricultural eco-economic system on the GGP.The lag of variable stationarity after the shock was relatively short,indicating that optimal coupling had not formed between the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic system.On the basis of enhancing the ecological functions,we should construct the agricultural industry-resource chain such that it focuses on promoting the effective utilization of resources in the region.In addition,the development of a carbon sink industry can be used to manifest the ecological values of ecological functions.