不同发展模式下资源环境承载力评价——以海南省为例

文章关注于产业、人口与资源环境要素的作用关系，建构了资源环境承载力综合评价框架，并以海南省为案例区开展应用研究。该框架首先对区域产业重要性进行评价并分级，为产业结构调整提供依据；其次解析了区域产业、人口资源消耗与污染排放强度，最后，基于产业评价结果设定不同的产业结构调整情景，结合产业和人口的资源消耗与污染排放强度评价不同产业结构下的资源环境承载力，即产业和人口的规模上限。结果表明：2016年海南省的经济规模并未超载，产业有进一步发展空间。其中土地资源成为海南省发展的首要限制因素，其次是水环境；海南经济效益较高的支柱产业和基础性产业多为高耗水、高污染的产业，亟需加强水资源的集约利用，并降低污染排放强度。为提升经济发展规模上限，需要培育低能耗、低排放的产业。文章建构的资源环境承载力评价方法将产业、人口与资源环境相联系，其评价结果政策意义更为明确，可为优化产业结构调整、控制产业及人口发展规模提供决策参考。

Water and Soil Carrying Capacity and Adjustment of Industrial Structure in Hainan Province

After 40 years of rapid development, China has produced incredible economic results at the heavy cost of resources and the environment. Although research on this has attracted increasing attention, no unified paradigm has been formed so far. Additionally, the mechanical exploration of the interaction among socioeconomic factors, resources, and the environment is still weak, and conclusions lack operability, which makes it difficult to provide effective decision-making support for industrial development. This study focuses on the relationship among industry, population, resources, and environmental factors in order to construct a comprehensive evaluation framework to be applied to Hainan province. The framework first evaluates the importance of industries and then analyzes the quantitative relationship among regional industries, population resource consumption, and the intensity of pollution emissions. Finally, it sets different adjustments to the industrial structure based on the industrial and population resource consumption and the intensity of pollution emissions to evaluate the resource and environmental carrying capacity of different industrial structures (that is, the upper limit of the scale of industry and population). The results show that the current economic scale of Hainan province is not overloaded, and there remains room for further industrial development. For example, land resources have become the primary limiting factor for the development of Hainan province, followed by the water environment. Most pillar and basic industries with higher economic benefits are highly water-consuming and polluting industries. There is an urgent need to reduce the use of water resources as well as the intensity of pollution emissions. To further enhance economic development, it is necessary to cultivate industries with low energy consumption and low emissions. The evaluation method of resource and environmental carrying capacity constructed in this study holds clearer policy significance and can provide decision-making references for optimizing industrial structure adjustments while controlling the scale of industry and population development. This study further connects the theoretical research and practical application of resource and environmental carrying capacity, improves the operability of the research results in terms of decision-making support, and provides methodological references for the evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity. Future research challenges were also discussed. With respect to the specific application of the model, it is more meaningful to focus on the relative value of the model evaluation results (that is, differences among development scenarios) instead of the absolute values of each scenario.