气候变化下新疆及咸海流域河川径流演变及适应性对策分析

 中亚咸海流域地处全球气候变化的敏感中心,生态环境脆弱、水资源紧缺,过去百年来中亚咸海流域气候、人类活动、生态环境均经历了较为显著的变化,分析中亚咸海流域气候-水-生态-人类活动的关系,对自然与人文相近的新疆可持续发展具有重要的借鉴意义。以最新收集的资料为基础,对比研究近50 a来新疆及近80 a来中亚咸海流域的气温、降水和主要河流的径流变化情况,结合二者水资源开发利用的演变历程,分析气候变化与人类活动对研究区生态环境与持续发展的影响,最后借鉴中亚咸海流域气候变化、人类活动、生态环境的综合关系,讨论气候变化下新疆水资源开发利用的适应性对策。结果表明：近80 a来,新疆与中亚咸海流域气候呈现较为一致的变暖趋势,尤其是20世纪80年代以来,二者绝大部分地区气候呈现“暖干”向“暖湿”转型迹象,河川径流也有不同程度的增加,但由于人类活动规模与强度的迅速、持续增强,研究区生态环境呈现尚未得到有效遏制的恶化趋势。立足于有利的气候时期,强化水资源开发利用管理,提高水资源利用效率和效益,加快关键水源工程建设,完善水资源配置网络体系的建设,是未来一段时期内应对气候变化下新疆水资源开发利用的主要适应性对策。

Exploring analysis on the adaptive countermeasures to water resources evolvement under the climate change in Xinjiang and Aral Sea Basin

The Central Asian region, with eco environmental fragility and shortage of water resources, is located in the sensitive centers of global climate change; the climate, human activities and the ecological environment have undergone more remarkable changes in Central Asia over the past century, analysis on the relation of climate-water-ecology-human activities in Central Asia that has an important significance to use for reference on the sustainable development of Xinjiang because of a similar nature and humanity. Based on the latest collection of information, comparative researched the collective data which 80 years in Central Asia and recent 50 years in Xinjiang such as temperatures, precipitation and the runoff changes situation of main rivers, combined the evolution course of water resources development and utilization, analyzed climate changes and human activities that produced affects to sustainable development and ecological environment within investigation area, eventually discussed the adaptive countermeasures of Xinjiang water resources utilization under condition of climate changes with reference of the integrated relationship of the climate changes, human activities and ecological environment in Central Asia. The results indicated that as follows: Xinjiang’s climate presented warm up trend in accord with the climate of Central Asia in recent 80 years, especially since 1980, the climates in most area of both showed transformation signs from "warm dry" to "warm wet", river runoff also has different degree of increase, but the ecological environment of research area presented deteriorated trend due to quickly and continuously enhancement of scale and strength of human activities. Based on favourable climate period, this disquisition put forward to strengthen management of water resources development and utilization, to improve use efficiency and benefit of water resources, to speed up construction of key water source project, and to perfect network system construction of water resources allocation, which are main adaptive countermeasures of Xinjiang water resources development and utilization for some time in future.