汾河流域城乡聚落体系发展潜能测度及空间模式探究

以11 188个自然聚落斑块为研究对象，基于场强模型，定量测度汾河流域城乡聚落体系发展潜能，借助GIS技术和地理探测器模型，分析其空间格局特征及驱动因素，进而探讨流域城乡融合发展空间模式。结果表明：① 城乡聚落斑块发展潜能差异显著，且空间分布极不均衡；纵向上中游流域高于下游流域高于上游流域，横向上河谷盆地区高于周边缓丘区高于两侧山丘区。② 聚落斑块发展潜能具有正向空间自相关性，高值斑块聚类显著；具有空间异质性特征且方向性明显，汾河主河道方向联动效应最强，空间联系最紧密；存在局域热点区，并呈现“主核–廊道–次核”的空间结构形态。③ 自然基础、社会经济发展水平和区位条件共同影响着城乡聚落体系发展潜质及空间结构形态；融合发展采取非均衡增长路径，市、县、镇、村全局考虑，构建“强化核心点–培育发展轴–扶持特色区–带动全流域”的逐层推进式空间发展模式。

Development Potential and Spatial Pattern of Urban-rural Settlement System in the Fenhe River Basin

The article used field model to calculate development potential of urban-rural system choosing 11, 188 settlement patches as study object, analyzed the spatial characters by GIS technology and explored factors based on Geodetector model, lastly, discussed the spatial pattern of the urban-rural integration. Several conclusions can be drawn as follows: 1) The development potential has significant difference and its distribution was unbalanced. From a vertical perspective, the average value of potential was the highest in the middle reaches, the second in the lower reaches and the lowest in upper reaches. From the crosswise view, it was occupied first place in basin, come second in hilly area and was third in mountain. 2) The potential of settlements overall positive spatial autocorrelation and showed a significant pattern of high-high spatial clustering. The potential has distinct spatial heterogeneity and was different in the each direction. The spatial interaction is the strongest in those settlements among the main direction of the Fenhe River. By hot spot analysis, it was found that the hot spots and hot sub-spots were intensively distributed with the spatial structure of “main core-corridor-sub core”. 3) Natural conditions, social and economic development level and distance to the center cities are the three main factors influencing the development potential and spatial structure of urban-rural settlement system. Non-balanced development is necessary, and “Point-Axis-Net-Area” development mode was build. Specifically, in the beginning, we should focus on building the core region, then set up the main development axis. The key remaining step is putting priority on the development of distinctive settlements which processes some kind of energy level and radiometric force. Finally, all settlements in urban-rural system support and promote each other and ultimately achieve integrated development.