长白山景区旅游安全风险动态评价研究

以长白山景区旅游安全为研究对象,以鱼骨图、动态贝叶斯、GIS技术等为基本研究方法,从研究区自然环境、社会环境及责任人为3个方面出发,筛选景区致险因子,构建景区旅游安全风险危险性评价指标体系,利用动态贝叶斯方法综合构建景区旅游安全风险动态评价模型;并以实测数据及景区统计数据为依据,划分景区旅游安全风险评价的4个动态时段,综合实现景区旅游安全风险动态风险评价。研究结果表明：① 中等以上风险区域呈条带状分布;② 高风险区域与主要景点重合;③ 长白山景区安全风险发生高概率的时段发生在第三个时段（12:00~14:00）;较高概率发生分别在第二个时段（10:00~12:00）与第四个时段（14:00~16:00）;中等概率发生较高的时段在第四个时段（14:00~16:00）;较低概率发生在第一个时段（8:00~10:00）。

Dynamic Evaluation of Tourism Safety Risk in the Changbai Mountains Scenic Spot

Taking the tourism safety of the Changbai Mountains as the research object, using fishbone diagrams, dynamic Bayesian network and GIS technology as the basic research methods, this article establishes the Changbai Mountains tourism safety risk evaluation model. It starts from the natural environment, social environment and human responsibility to screen disaster-causing factors of the scenic spot and construct the evaluation index system of tourism safety risk in the scenic spot. The article uses dynamic Bayesian network to synthetically construct the dynamic evaluation model of tourism safety risk in the scenic spot. The measured data and scenic statistical data were analyzed, and the whole day is divided into 4 dynamic periods of tourism safety risk evaluation to comprehensively realize the dynamic evaluation. The results showed that: 1) The middle risks and above are distributed in a strap-shape region; 2) The higher risk rigions are concided with the scenic spots; 3) The highest probability period of the Changbai Mountains scenic spot safety risk is in the third period (12:00-14:00). The higher probability occurs in the second period (10:00-12:00) and (14:00-16:00), and the lower probability occurs in the first period (8:00-10:00).