中国出境旅游与国际服务贸易关系分析

出境旅游是国际服务贸易的重要组成部分,是世界经济全球化的响应。出境旅游与国际服务贸易关系分析是制定出境旅游政策的基础之一。根据1985~2011年中国出境旅游和国际服务贸易时间序列的相关数据,采用计量经济学分析方法,系统探讨了出境旅游与国际服务贸易的关系。得出结论:①出境旅游与国际服务贸易之间存在正相关关系;②出境旅游与国际服务贸易存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系;③出境旅游与国际服务贸易存在短期波动回归长期均衡关系;④出境旅游是国际服务贸易出口的Granger原因,但不是国际服务贸易进口的Granger原因,国际服务贸易进出口均是出境旅游的Granger原因。

Relationship Between Chinese International Outbound Tourism and International Service Trade

Along with the rapid development of global tourism,international tourism becomes an important part of international service trade,which is regarded as a significant parameter of internationalization level of a country or a region.In the context of rapid development in national economy,outbound tourism grows rapidly,which proves that international outbound tourism is the inevitable result of continuous global economic growth and international tourism’s rapid globalization.By the propulsion the development of global economy and international trade liberalization,international service trade has become one of the most important ways for the international economic intercourse activities and also has become the developing assistor of the global economy.However,at present,the relationship between the international outbound tourism development and international service trade is still controversial.According to the relevant data of international outbound tourism and international service trade in 1985 – 2011 in China,the relationship between international outbound tourism and international services trade is analyzed systematically in this ariticle.The results show that: 1) There is a positive correlation between the development of the Chinese international outbound tourism and international service trade.2) A long-term stable dynamic equilibrium relationship is existed between the development of Chinese international outbound tourism and international service trade.The development of international outbound tourism and the growth of international service trade affect each other,and it has been worked out that the benefits of international service trade to the international outbound tourism are greater than that of international outbound tourism to the international service trade.3) Short-term fluctuations are existed in the development of Chinese international outbound tourism and international service trade.Whereas,in a given time,these fluctuations could cause retrogression to the long-term equilibrium.Under the influence of the short-term fluctuation in the international tourism,international service trade would suffer a short-term fluctuation.However,international service trade import recovers faster than that of international service trade export to the long-term equilibrium.On the other hand,under the short-term effects of international service trade,international tourism would also have a short-term fluctuation,but international outbound recovers faster than international inbound tourism.4) The international outbound tourism is in the granger causality with the international services trade exports,while the international outbound tourism is not the granger causality with international services trade imports.The international service trade imports and exports are the granger cause of international outbound tourism.The development of the outbound tourism is conducive to the export of international service trade,but the development of the outbound tourism does not play a significant role in the import of international service trade.The import and export of international service trades are beneficial to the development of outbound tourism.For this reason,China can stimulate the development of international service trade by developing international outbound tourism and hence by loosening the outbound tourism policy in the future.