中国绿色发展效率的空间特征及溢出分析

提高绿色发展效率是建设生态文明、促进经济转型发展的重要途径。基于Super-SBM模型对中国（除港、澳、台、西藏地区）2005~2015年绿色发展效率进行测度,从空间异质、空间关联与空间机理3个方面分析绿色发展效率的空间特征,运用空间杜宾模型验证绿色发展效率的溢出效应并探讨各要素的空间传导机制。结果表明：① 2005~2015年,中国绿色发展效率表现为“先平稳再快速再稳定”的阶段性变化规律,地区间差异较大,形成了“东-中-西”阶梯式递减和“南-中-北”对称式分布的空间分异特征,“T”字型发展格局逐渐凸显。② 绿色发展效率存在显著的空间正相关,空间集聚程度逐步降低,热点区域增加,东部沿海地区形成稳定的热点区,中西部形成稳定的冷点区。③ 绿色发展效率的空间自组织性逐渐增强,空间差异不断扩大,由空间自相关导致的结构化分异更加明显,随机成分引起的空间异质性正逐渐减弱,西北-东南是空间差异的主要方向。④ 绿色发展效率存在较强的空间溢出效应,经济水平、技术创新和能源强度产生明显正向效应,产业结构则具有显著负向效应。

Spatial Pattern and Spillover Effects of Green Development Efficiency in China

The concepts of innovation, coordination, green, open and sharing are the keys to the development of China and even the future. Green development is the main tone of the 13^th Five-Year Plan of China, and it emphasizes on the mutual unity and coordinated development between economic growth and environmental protection. It is a kind of human-oriented way of sustainable development. Improving the efficiency of green development is an important way to achieve the ecological civilization construction and transformation of economic development the important way. This study used the spatial analysis methods, such as the Super-SBM model, spatial autocorrelation, spatial variation functions and spatial durbin model to measure the green development efficiency from 2005 to 2015 in China (Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are excluded), by building an input and output index system of green development efficiency. In addition, from the perspective of geography space, it revealed the spatial pattern and spillover effects of green development efficiency in China. The results showed that: 1) From 2005 to 2015, the efficiency of China’s green development is characterized by the stage characteristics of ‘stable at beginning, then fast and last stable again’. It shows an overall upward trend with large differences among regions. The regional differentiation of the ‘East-Central-West’ stepwise decreasing and the ‘South-Central-North’ symmetrical distribution, and ‘T’ shaped shaft development pattern is particularly evident. 2) There is a positive correlation between green development efficiency, the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually decreases, the hot spots increase, the eastern coastal areas form stable hot spots, and the central and western parts form stable cold spots. 3) The spatial self-organization of green development efficiency is more and more strong, the space difference is gradually increased, the structural differentiation caused by spatial autocorrelation is more obvious, the spatial heterogeneity caused by random components is gradually weakened, and the space between northwest and southeast Significant difference. 4) There is a significant spillover effect of green development efficiency, a significant positive effect on the level of economic development, and a significant negative effect on industrial structure, urbanization and technological innovation. Trying hard to explore the law of spatial evolution of green development and provide a reference for the coordinated green development of the three systems of regional economy, society and environment.