东北三省创新全要素生产率增长的时空特征及其发展趋势预测

使用DEA-Malmquist方法在对比1994~2013年间中国东北三省、东部、中部和西部地区之间创新全要素生产率（TFP）时空差异的基础上,分析了东北三省内部创新TFP的时空演变特征,并运用PVAR模型对东北三省创新TFP的发展趋势进行了预测。研究表明：① 从空间格局上看东北三省创新TFP增速略高于西部地区,但低于中部和东部地区;② 东北三省创新TFP增长的主要动力来源于技术进步,在东北三省内部吉林省创新TFP的增长最快,其增长动力主要源于纯效率变化,其次为技术进步;而辽宁省和黑龙江省创新TFP的动力主要是技术进步;③ 预测显示东北三省创新TFP增长幅度未来会逐渐放缓,其增长的主要动力将会由技术进步转变为规模效率的改进。

The Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Development Trend Forecast of Innovative TFP Growth in China’s Three Northeastern Provinces

Among various different measures which can be used to make the promotion of regional economic development, the role of innovation cannot be ignored. Over the past 20 years, the proportion of the total number of researchers in the three northeastern provinces (including Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning) of China has dropped 6.6 percent. Besides, the R & D / GDP of the three northeastern provinces increased by only 0.09%, which is far below the national average (1.51%). According to the current researches, it can be found that the economic growth achieved through the innovation capacity in the northeastern provinces accounts for 49.3%, which indicates that innovation plays an important role during the process of promoting the economic development.Innovation has turned into more and more important for regional development in China. On the basis of the panel data of China ranging from 1995 to 2013, Malmquist index model was used to make the analysis on the spatial and temporal differences of innovation TFP in the three provinces of Northeastearn China. The PVAR model was constructed on decomposed data. The change trend of TFP and its decomposition inthese three provinces of Northeast Chinaareforecasted. In accordance with the above process, three conclusions can be made as follows:1) The innovation TFP growth speed of Northeast China is slightly higher than that of Western China while is lower than Central China and Eastern China. 2) From the inside of the three northeastern provinces, the innovation TFP of Jilin Province, which is driven by the improvement of the management level and the adjustment of the system (PEC), grew fastest from 1995 to 2013. Secondly, the major driving force of innovation TFP of Liaoning Province came from technology. However, its technological progress has been limited by the scale of innovation. The growth rate of innovation TFP in Heilongjiang Province is the slowest, which is mainly due to the limited growth rate of endogenous power (SEC, PTC, STC, PEC). At the same time, the result shows that the promotion of the system and management level in these three northeastern provinces is far greater than the technological progress and the enlargement of the scale. 3) Based on the forecast results, the three provinces in the Northeast innovation TFP growth rate may continue to slow down in the near future. From the perspective of unit changes, STC and SEC unit changes play the dominant roles in improving TFP of the three northeastern provinces. In terms of the degree of influence, the innovation of TFP in Northeast China is mainly affected by the change of PEC and STC.