中国农民收入区域差异及影响因素分析

利用2004~2015年全国31个省（市）农民收入的有关数据,采用泰尔指数(Theil Index)测算出全国农民收入差距,将中国分为粮食主产区、粮食主销区、粮食产销平衡区三大功能区域,分解出三大功能区域组间差距和组内差距,并计算组间差距和组内差距分别对总收入差距贡献率。结果表明：2004~2006年全国各省农民收入差距变大,而2007~2015年逐渐缩小。经过进一步计算,组间差距对全国农民收入差距的贡献率达到70%,组内差距达到30%,可以看出,中国农民收入在粮食主产区、粮食主销区、粮食产销平衡区中区域间差距远大于区域内差距。用多元回归模型分析全国农民收入差距的影响因素,得出第一产业占GDP的比重、城镇化率、农村金融发展规模等指标与泰尔指数呈负相关,工业化率、比较劳动生产率与泰尔指数呈正相关,据此提出相应对策建议。

Regional Differences of Farmers' Income in China and Analysis of Influencing Factors

Based on the data of 31 provinces (cities) farmers' income from 2004 to 2015, this article uses the Theil Index to measure the income gap of farmers in China, divides China into the main grain producing areas, the main grain sales area, grain production and marketing balance area. The article decomposes the gap between the three functional regional groups, and calculates the gap between the group and the gap within the group on the total income gap contribution rate. The results show that the income gap between the peasants in the provinces of China was increasing from 2004 to 2006, and in 2007-2015 it is gradually reduced. After further calculation, the contribution rate of gap between the groups to the national income gap is 70%, and that of the gap within the group to the national income gap is 30%. It can be seen that the gap of China's farmers’ income among the main grain producing areas, grain sales area, grain production and marketing balance area is much larger than the regional internal gap. The article analyzes the influencing factors of the income gap of the peasants by using the multiple regression model. It is concluded that the indicators of the primary industry, such as the proportion of GDP, the urbanization rate and the scale of rural financial development, are negatively correlated with the Theil Index, while the industrialization rate, the comparative labor productivity are positive. For this reason, the government for the policy formulation should coordinate the main grain producing areas and the main sales area, enhance the support for the development of the main grain producing areas, improve the strong agricultural policy further to the main grain producing areas, to accelerate the urbanization and industrialization process of main grain producing areas, develop the modern agriculture and industrialization, urbanization.