1990～2010年中国人口收缩区分布的时空格局演变——基于不同测度指标的分析

在人口收缩内涵界定的基础上,采用总人口和劳动力等直接指标结合出生率、老龄化率等间接指标进行综合测度,在地级尺度和县市尺度上分析了1990~2010年中国人口收缩区的数量变化、空间分布及演化特征（由于获取限制,未包含港澳台地区数据）,并对比了不同测度指标和方法之间的差异。主要的研究发现如下：①人口收缩区在数量上有明显的增长,收缩程度呈现出明显加剧趋势;②人口收缩区在中部和西部偏东地区快速扩张,川黔渝地区、长江中游地区、东北地区最为严重;③单一指标在识别人口绝对收缩方面效果较好,而且总人口指标往往比劳动力指标更早的反映一个区域的人口状况;④综合指标测度的方法能够更加全面的判断一个区域的人口发展状况,进而识别出人口处于相对收缩状态的区域;⑤人口收缩在县市尺度上比在地级尺度上表现更为明显,但两者的差异呈缩小趋势。基于以上研究发现,建议政府更加重视区域人口收缩问题及其对社会经济发展的影响。

Temporal-spatial Pattern of Regional Population Shrinkage in China in 1990-2010: A Multi-indicators Measurement

Regional population shrinkage is becoming an important issue affecting the sustainable development of regional economy and society in the worldwide, and also arousing increasing attention in China. However, though some related studies in view of population distribution existed, few of them have directly addressed this phenomenon. Against this background, this article aims to investigate regional population shrinkage in China by employing multi-indicators. Specifically, we discussed the existing definitions of population shrinkage, and then based on the spatial population data of 1990, 2000 and 2010 in prefecture-level and county-level, applied both the single indicators, including total population and labor, and the integrated indicator which includes not only total population and labor but also birth rate and aging, to analyze the changes of population shrinking units in number and spatial distribution, and compared the differences in the measurement indicators. The main findings are as follows: 1) Both the single indicators, namely total population and labor, showed that population shrinkage units have increased significantly in number: 27.4% and 38.6% of the units decreased their total population while 21.4% and 25.2% of the units decreased their labor in prefecture-level and county-level from 2000 to 2010, respectively; moreover, many units also show an aggravation trend in the shrinking degree; 2) The population shrinking units have been expanding rapidly in the Central and the Western regions, especially in Sichuan-Chongqing- Guizhou region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River region and the Northeast region. In contrast, the coastal region has only increased some shrinking units in the northern of Jiangsu Province and the western of Fujian Province; 3) The single indicators were effective in identifying the absolute population shrinkage, and we argued that the total population is more suitable than the labor, because total population shrinking came first in most of the units and then followed by labor shrinking; 4) The integrated indicator was more effective in evaluating the comprehensive status of population development in one region, and then it can identify the units which were relatively shrinking their population, that is, their overall situation is worse than the national average level though they still increased their total population. The results showed that the units with a relative shrinking population have a high proportion, which was about 20% in the county level in both periods, while that type of units in prefecture-level was nearly doubled to about 25% from 1990-2000 to 2000-2010. 5) Regional population shrinkage was more obvious in county-level than in prefecture-level, but the difference has been narrowed, given the fact that the differences in percentages, shrinking degrees, and spatial distributions of the shrinking units were very close in the period from 2000 to 2010. Based on the above findings, this article argues that regional population shrinkage needs further attention by scholars and governments.