城市增长边界研究进展——理论模型、划定方法与实效评价

新型城镇化背景下,传统粗放的城镇土地利用模式难以为继,控制城市规模、优化空间格局已成为当前国土资源管理的重点工作之一。城市增长边界(UGB)作为一种西方国家控制城市蔓延的技术手段和政策工具已逐渐被引入国内。采用文献资料法和归纳演绎法,梳理并分析了国内外城市增长边界的理论模型、划定方法与实效评价,挖掘未来城市增长驱动力和增长边界制定方法可能的研究方向,为后续研究和未来其在中国的实践提供参考。结果表明：① 城市增长边界实证研究的理论基础主要源于古典单中心城市模型,由于国情不同,国内主要关注经济水平、产业结构和可达性对城市增长的影响,而国外在此基础上还关注公共政策和服务、外部性以及主体间的博弈对城市蔓延的促进或抑制作用;② 城市增长刚性边界划定主要以土地适宜性和承载力评价为基础,弹性边界可采用元胞自动机进行空间辅助模拟;③ 国外城市增长边界的实施效果具有地区差异性,国内目前还缺乏城市增长边界实施效果评价相关方面的研究。因此,城市增长驱动力后续研究应吸纳多源理论,识别不同尺度下其机理特征,探索宏观环境的情景变量对微观环境下“驱动力—城市增长”这一关系的影响。城市增长弹性边界制定需要考虑城乡土地利用转换背后不同情景下主体间的复杂博弈对用地转换在空间上分布的决定作用。为了保证政策的持续性和统筹区域发展,未来需要明确城市增长边界的管理机构,制定对应的法律条款和管理体系。

A literature review of urban growth boundary: Theory,modeling, and effectiveness evaluation

The traditional extensive urban land use will not meet the requirements of new urbanization. As a result, controlling urban sprawl and land use optimization have become one of the key tasks of land resources management. The purpose of this study is to provide new perspectives and identify research areas for urban growth boundary study through the review and analysis of existing theoretical models, methods, and effectiveness evaluation cases. The research methods we employed are literature review and induction and deduction. The results indicate that the theoretical basis of urban growth analysis came from monocentric city model. Most studies in China mainly focused on the impact of economic factors, industrial structure, and accessibility on urban growth while public policies and services, externality, and stakeholder power struggles are also thought to have effects on urban growth. Urban growth rigid boundary design is mainly based on suitability and carrying capacity assessments, and elastic boundary is usually modeled by using cellular automata. The effectiveness of urban growth boundary on controlling urban sprawl is different in different cities in developed countries. There are few case studies to evaluate the effectiveness of urban growth boundary in China. We should adopt diversified theories to study the mechanism of urban growth. The effects of multilevel drivers on urban growth should be considered in future research. Most importantly, stakeholder power struggles should be taken into consideration in future elastic boundary modeling. In order to make urban growth boundary policies sustainable and balance regional development, legal and management systems of urban growth boundary should be designed in the future.