全球气候变化背景下生态系统 的脆弱性评价

未来100年气候变暖速度将比上一世纪提高2－10倍，势必对生态系统的格局、过程和服务功能产生巨大影响，威胁生态系统和社会经济的持续发展。因此评价全球气候变化背景下生态系统脆弱性是当前全球变化和生态系统研究的主要内容。由于气候变化以及生态系统对其响应和适应的复杂性，生态系统脆弱性评价进展缓慢。本文在阐明生态系统脆弱性概念的基础上，综述了近年来国内外关于气候变化对生态系统影响及其脆弱性评价研究的现状、方法，归纳和介绍了脆弱性评价研究的三种主要方法——模型模拟研究、指标评价研究以及类比研究，指出气候变化的脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题、不足以及今后的发展方向。

An Overview of Assessment of Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

Assessment of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change is imperative as the rate of global climate change is increasing substantially. The ecosystem vulnerability assessment is to i-dentify how the ecosystems respond to climate change, which ecosystems are most at risk, and above which climate threshold ecosystem degradation will occur. Because of the complexities of climate and ecosystem processes and uncertainties in climate change, it is difficult to quantitatively describe and predict ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. In this paper, we reviewed results of the major studies on ecosystems vulnerabilities to climate change in recent decade, and found that many ecosystems, especially natural ecosystems, would become more vulnerable to the predicted future climate change. We also gave a synthetic analysis of methodologies used in vulnerability assessment, and introduced the three major methods that are commonly used: process modeling, assessment with indicators, and threshold of vulnerability. Finally, we overviewed the development of the vulnerability assessment in the future.