唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系*

将唐代定量划分为治世与乱世5个时期,探讨了唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系。治世、乱世的划分标准参考一套系统的战争数据集,并用单因素方差分析的方法验证各项数据指标在治世与乱世间的差异性,从而说明唐代治世、乱世分期的合理性。治世、乱世分期结果如下: 公元618—626年为乱世,公元627—742年为治世,公元743—784年为乱世,公元785—859年为治世,公元860—907年为乱世。方差分析的结果显示,除了总边境战争外,气候变化、总战争、反叛战争、进攻型边境战争、防御型边境战争、农业丰歉等级和人口增长率在治世与乱世之间均表现出显著差异。用战争定量体现唐代社会治世、乱世变化,探讨气候变化与社会治、乱的关系即是探讨气候变化与战争的关系,乱世的主要战争类型是反叛战争和防御型边境战争,治世的主要战争类型是进攻型边境战争。相关分析结果表明,唐代温度降低、降水减少的时期,农业收成减少导致资源供给不足,更容易发生反叛战争;温度暖期、降水充沛的时期,农业产量提高,刺激了快速增长的人口,在技术改善能力有限、土地资源一定的情况下,更易发生以对外扩张为目的的边境战争,因此气候变化是影响唐代社会治乱变化的重要原因之一。

Relationship between social stability and climate change in the Tang Dynasty

This paper quantitatively divides the Tang Dynasty into five prosperous and chaotic social periods,and discusses the relationship between the social division and climate change. The criteria for determining prosperity and chaos is refered to a set of systematic war data. In order to verify the reasonableness of the division,we applied 1-way-ANOVA to test the differences of each variable index between prosperity and chaos periods. The results of social division are as follows: from AD 618 to AD 626,and from AD 743 to AD 784,as well as from AD 860 to AD 907 were the chaotic periods;while from AD 627 to A0 742,and from AD 785 to AD 859 were the prosperous periods. The results of 1-way-ANOVA show that,climate change,general wars,rebellions,offensive border wars,defensive border wars,agricultural harvests,and population growth rates are all significantly different between prosperity and chaos,except the general external wars. War data were used to quantitatively represent the social changes in the Tang Dynasty. In chaotic periods,the main types of wars are rebellions and defensive border wars,while the main type of wars in prosperous periods are offensive border wars. To explore the relationship between climate change and social division means to make clear the relationship between climate change and wars. The results of correlation analysis show the decrease of agricultural harvest due to lower temperature and less precipitation leads to the shortage of resources supply,so that the likelihood of rebellions increase;while during the warm periods with abundant rainfall,increasing agricultural harvest stimulates rapid population growth. Due to the limitations of technology and land resources,offensive border wars for expansion are more likely to occur.