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主成分分析与Bayes判别法在突水水源判别中的应用
引用本文:张好,姚多喜,鲁海峰,朱宁宁,薛凉.主成分分析与Bayes判别法在突水水源判别中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探,2017,45(5):87-93.
作者姓名:张好  姚多喜  鲁海峰  朱宁宁  薛凉
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51474008);安徽省自然科学基金项目(1508085QE89)
摘    要:准确有效地判别突水水源是解决矿井水害的前提条件。基于淮北袁店二矿各含水层共59个水样水质化验资料,利用主成分分析法,计算各水样的因子得分,并进行系统聚类,剔除错误样本。利用剩余水样作为学习样本,检验Bayes判别函数的判定准确性,得出准确率为92.5%,并进行交叉验证。利用该判别函数对某工作面底板下一富水区水样进行判别,结果与实际情况吻合。结果指示基于主成分分析与Bayes判别法较单一Bayes判别法更加准确,能够消除样本变量之间的相互影响,实现对突水水源的快速有效判别。 

关 键 词:突水水源    主成分分析    系统聚类    Bayes判别函数
收稿时间:2016-09-10

Application of principal component analysis and Bayes discrimination approach in water source identification
Abstract:Accurate and efficient determination of water inrush source is the prerequisite for solution of mine water disaster. In order to solve the problem of mine water disaster, based on water quality analysis data of 59 water samples of different aquifers in Yuaner coal mine, principal component analysis in multivariate statistical analysis was used. Principal component analysis was used to calculate the factor score of different water samples, hierarchical clustering was conducted and the erroneous samples were rejected. The remaining water samples were used as learning samples to test the accuracy of determination of Bayes discriminant function. It is concluded that the accuracy was 92.5%. The discriminant results were verified by cross-validation. The discriminant function was used to discriminate the water sample from the water-rich area of a working face floor in the mine, and the results coincided with the actual situation. The results show that the discrimination method based on principal component analysis and Bayes discrimination method was more accurate than single Bayes discrimination method, could eliminate the interaction effect among variables of samples and realize fast and effective discrimination of water inrush source, the discriminant process of water inrush source is simple and the accuracy is high. The interaction between the sample of variables was eliminated, was realized. It provides effective basis for coal mine water prevention and control. 
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