昆明市东川区泥石流风险性评价研究

昆明市东川区是我国最著名的泥石流分布区。基于社会经济发展的需要,联系泥石流研究的相关理论成果,使用泥石流危险性评价模型,结合GIS软件对昆明市东川区泥石流进行危险性评价,得出了昆明市东川区各乡镇的泥石流危险度。易损性评价是泥石流灾害风险性评价的一部分,根据每个乡镇的经济、人口等指标结合国内有关易损性的理论,建立东川区的泥石流易损性评价模型,从而对东川区以各乡镇为单位进行了易损性评价,得出了各乡镇的易损度。有了易损度和风险度,利用联合国提出的自然灾害风险表达式两项相乘得出了东川区的风险度。最后,使用ARCGIS9.0的制图输出功能,对该区域的泥石流风险性进行了分区和制图,给出了昆明市东川区泥石流风险性评价图,使该地区的泥石流风险性评价有了新的以乡镇为单元的量化指标,更好的服务于当地防灾减灾和经济社会建设。

Assessment of debris flow risk in Dongchuan District, Kunming City

Dongchuan, in Kunming city, is the most famous for debris flow in China. In order to serve the social economy development, debris Risk model is used to carry out the hazard assessment under the help of GIS software. Vulnerability assessment is part of the research. According to the economy, population and so on in each town, a model for vulnerability with relative theories is established to assess the debris vulnerability. Vulnerability degrees in various towns was obtained as a result. After both installments had been finished, risk degrees were gained from the natural disaster risk model by the United Nations： R = H ＊ V. Finally, risk district map of Dongchuan was given with the symbology function in ARCGIS DEKTOP software according to the various risk degrees, which can be used to serve the local disaster prevention and the social economic construction.