气候变暖对河西走廊棉花生产影响的成因与对策研究

揭示了气候变化对河西走廊棉花生产有着显著影响，实际上使其生育期延长20天，霜前花减少30％；适生区域提高100 m左右，面积扩大7倍；衣分提高2个百分点，气候产量增加54.3％的基本事实。探明了现代气候变暖对高原地区喜热作物棉花产生非常有利影响的重要原因，是由于≥10℃积温升高131℃，裂铃至停止生长关键期增温30℃；最低气温升高0.9℃，春季增温加快，秋季降温减缓，使生长期热量资源得到较大补偿，气候生态适应性更适宜，与棉花生理需求指标更接近。预测未来10～15年内≥10℃积温可能增加100～300℃，适生区域升高100 m左右，建议稳步扩大面积20％～30％，并提出按不同种植区域采取相适应的农业生产技术等建议。

Study on the Cause of Formation and Countermeasure Effect of Climate Warming on Cotton Produce in Hexi Corridor

This paper opened out brass tacks that cotton produce occurring importance changes, growth duration extended 20d, frost bloom decrease 30%, in order region heighten about 100m,acreage enlarge 7 times, lint percent improve two percent, climate yield increase 54.3％ in Hexi corridor. Prove up the reason of the favorableness effect of modern times climate warming on cotton is ≥10℃,accumulate temperature hoist 131℃, temperature increase 30℃ during split bell to stop growth, the lowest temperature increase 0.9℃, temperature increased step on the juice in spring and drop tardiness in autumn, compensated the heat resource in growth period consequently, climate zoology adaptability in order. Forecast ≥10℃ accumulate temperature increase 100～300℃ by any possibility within 10～15 years in the future. In order growth region heighten about 100m, make suggestions steadily extend planting area 20%～30%. Moreover bring forward take be on speaking terms agriculture manufacture technology according to different planting region.