SLM和LPM模型日径流模拟对比分析——以陕西黑河为例

本文以黑河流域为例,根据可能收集的资料,试用SLM和LPM模型对日径流量进行了模拟和模拟精度检验,并对各模型的模拟结果作了对比分析,结果表明:①LPM可用于参考性预报,而SLM不能用于参考性预报,只能作参考性估报;②由于LPM模型吸收了季节变化信息,其检验期和率定期的评定效率均较高.结论:较之SLM,LPM模型的有效性和可靠性都有很大的提高,而且在一定程度上消减了洪峰预报误差,考虑了洪峰非线性变化的影响.

Comparison and Analysis of the Daily Runoff Simulation in SLM and LPM Models——Based on the Heihe river

On the basis of data collected about the Heihe River,the models of SLMand LPM are used to simulate the daily runoff.Further,the accuracies and reliabilities of the results are analyzed and compared in this paper.It is suggested that the LPM model can be applied to forecast the runoff process,while the SLM model can't,and that owing to taking seasonal variation into account,the LPM model are superior to the SLM in terms of the efficiency and reliability.In conclusion,compared with the SLM model,the accuracy and reliability of the LPM model have improved greatly,including cuting down the discharge of the flood peak as well as considering the impact as a result of the nonlinear changes of the flood peak.