基于三维生态足迹的可持续发展实证研究——以重庆市为例

文章借鉴Niccolucci的三维生态足迹模型，通过计算“国家公顷”，更新均衡因子和产量因子，添加污染物账户，改进传统生态足迹模型，并利用改进模型分析重庆市2008-2017年生态足迹的历时性。在此基础上，构建可持续发展能力综合指数，以研究重庆市可持续发展能力的动态变化。结果表明:（1）存流量指数除2008年、2012年、2013年及2014年之外，其他年份均小于1，说明重庆市存量资本的消耗有所下降；（2）生态资源利用效率指数整体呈逐年降低状态，重庆市资源利用效率逐年提高；（3）生态多样性指数整体呈阶梯式上升，重庆市生态系统的稳定性增强；（4）可持续发展能力综合指数总体上升了13.85%，重庆市可持续发展能力总体增强；（5）生态压力指数介于1.51～2.00之间，生态环境尚处在很不安全状态，存量资本依然在被占用，重庆市尚处于非可持续发展状态，且2017年可持续发展能力综合指数出现小幅度下跌，故应牢固树立绿色发展理念，及时采取措施警惕其继续下滑。 

Empirical study on sustainable development based on the three-dimensional ecological footprint:A case of Chongqing

Chongqing is located in southwest China, the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, with a total karst area of 32，680 km2, accounting for 39.7% of the city’s land area. Due to its poor internal environmental stability, the area has serious ecological problems such as soil erosion and rocky desertification. In recent years, relying on its superior location and national strategic advantages, Chongqing has basically formed a pattern of coexistence of large agriculture, large industry, large transportation and large circulation. With the rapid economic and social development, the ecological environment is facing tremendous pressure and the sustainable development has been threatened. In order to provide references for the sustainable development of Chongqing,in this paper, we firstly adapted the 3D ecological footprint model of Niccolucci by calculating the "national hectare", updating the equilibrium factor and yield factor, and adding the pollutant account. Then, we diachronically analyzed the ecological footprint of Chongqing from 2008 to 2017 by using the improved ecological footprint model. On this basis, we constructed a comprehensive index to assess the dynamic changes of sustainable development ability in Chongqing. The results show that， （1） The stock flow indexes were less than 1 in the period studied, except for those in the years of 2008, 2012, 2013 and 2014, indicating that the consumption of stock capital has decreased; （2） The overall ecological resource utilization efficiency index decreased year by year, while the resource utilization efficiency increased at the same time; （3） The index of ecological diversity increased stepwise, and the stability of the ecosystem was enhanced; （4） The comprehensive index of sustainable development capacity increased by 13.85%, indicating that the overall sustainable development capacity has been strengthened; （5） The ecological pressure index was between 1.51 and 2.00, the ecological environment was still in a very unsafe state, the stock capital was still occupied, and Chongqing was still in a state of unsustainable development. In addition, the comprehensive index of sustainable development capacity showed a slight decline in 2017. Therefore, under the guidance of the concept of "green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains", Chongqing should accelerate the formation of a spatial pattern of resource conservation and environmental protection, strive to build an environmental governance system led by the government, dominated by enterprises, and jointly participated by social organizations and the public, optimize the ecological spatial layout, strictly abide by the three control lines, and be alert to the continuous decline of sustainable development capacity.