水库预蓄效益与风险控制模型

在论述水库预蓄效益与风险分析的必要性和主要困难的基础上，首先提出一种风险率的计算方法；然后提出了一种经经济效益与风险率为目标的水库预蓄水位模糊优化控制模型及其求解方法，可供汛期分斯抬地限水位或实时决策控制预蓄水位时使用，为决策者提供有依据的信息；最后通过优选丰满发电厂水库预蓄高度算例，较详细地叙述模糊优化控制模型的建立及其求解方法，说明建模及求解方法理论是严密的，计算任意便且易于推广应用。

Benefit and Risk Model for Controlling Pre-storage Level of Reservoir

First, a method of calculating risk rate on pre-storage level is introduced based on analyzing the necessity and major difficulty to heighten storage level as well as its benefit and risk for a reservoir flood control. Next, a fuzzy control model and its corresponding algorthm are presented by using fuzzy set theory. There exist two goals such as economical benefit and risk in the process of heightening storage level of a reservoir. The pursuant message is provided by this model for decision-maker at the flood period, which is necessary to decision maker to heighten the water level at stages or realtime control. Finally, the fuzzy optimal control model is applied to Fengman Hydropower Station. It is shown that the model and foe algorithm are rigorous and simple, and can also be applied to other hydropower stations.