| 三峡水库汛期分期的变点分析方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘攀,郭生练,王才君,张洪刚.三峡水库汛期分期的变点分析方法研究[J].水文,2005,25(1):18-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘攀 郭生练 王才君 张洪刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学,水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北,武汉,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部重大科研项目《水库设计运用专题研究》，三峡开发总公司资助项目(CT-02-06-09) |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了变点分析理论，结合三峡水库汛期的分期，阐述了均值变点、概率变点的理论与分析方法。采用宜昌站1882-2001年实测日流量资料，用均值变点分析方法对汛期每日最大洪峰构成的时间序列进行分期；同时选择一定的阈值，在假定发生概率服从二项分布的条件下，应用概率变点分析方法进行分期，最后给出了三峡水库汛期的分期方式。经比较表明，变点分析理论应用于汛期分期中，能反映来水的基本规律，具有一定的应用价值；但从理论上以及防洪的角度来讲，概率变点分析方法较均值变点方法更适于水库汛期的分期计算。
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| 关 键 词： | 三峡水库 分期 变点 均值变点 概率变点 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0852(2005)01-0018-06 |
Flood Season Staged for Three Gorges Reservoir Based on the Change-Point Approach |
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| LIU Pan,GUO Sheng-lian,WANG Cai-jun,ZHANG Hong-gang.Flood Season Staged for Three Gorges Reservoir Based on the Change-Point Approach[J].Hydrology,2005,25(1):18-23. |
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| Authors: | LIU Pan GUO Sheng-lian WANG Cai-jun ZHANG Hong-gang |
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| Abstract: | The flood season is usually divided into several stages in reservoir operation for the sake of more benefits. This paper presents a method of flood season staged for the Three Gorges Reservoir based on the change-point theory. Two methods of analyzing change-point, which assume the data set follows the normal distribution and binomial distribution respectively, are applied in daily discharge data of the Yichang Gauging Station from 1882 to 2001. The results indicate that the flood season staged for Three Gorges Reservoir is divided into three periods. By analysis, the change-point method based on binomial model is more suitable in flood season staged since it has theoretic basis and is practicable. |
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| Keywords: | Three Gorges Reservoir flood season staged change-point average value change-point probability change-point |
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