暴雨山洪水动力学模型研究进展

山洪灾害突发性强、破坏性大、预测难度高，其预报是水文学及水动力学面临的重大科学问题。深入理解流域暴雨山洪响应机理是准确预测山洪灾害的关键。暴雨山洪通常发生在资料较为匮乏的小流域，给适用于较大流域的水文模型应用带来了挑战；而暴雨山洪完整水动力学方法对历史资料需求低，充分考虑了暴雨山洪形成与演化的物理机制，能够准确地描述降雨-产汇流-沟道洪水演进的全过程，减小了暴雨山洪预报的不确定性。本文首先比较了应用水文学方法和水动力学方法模拟暴雨山洪的优缺点；其次，详细梳理了暴雨山洪水动力学模型的关键技术，特别是结合暴雨山洪非规则坡面流动的特点，总结概括了浅水动力学控制方程离散中的地形源项和阻力源项处理方法；然后，系统探究了暴雨山洪水动力学关键物理因子（降雨、下渗、阻力等）作用规律及其定量化方法；最后，展望了模型精度、计算效率、应用领域等发展方向。

Review on hydrodynamic modelling of flash floods

Flash flood outbursts unexpectedly, and is always responsible for loss of life and excessive damage to infrastructure and the environment. It is a complex nonlinear process and the key scientific problem in the hydrology and hydrodynamics. Enhanced knowledge about generation and evolution processes of flash floods is important for effective flood risk management. Flash flood commonly occurs in mountainous and hilly areas in which gauged data is often rare or simply unavailable. Full hydrodynamic modelling incorporates more physical mechanisms, which can describe the details of flows over irregular terrain and reduces the uncertainty of prediction. And thus the need for historical hydrology information is decreased. In this paper, 1) advantages and disadvantages of both hydrological and hydrodynamic models are discussed, 2) key aspects of hydrodynamic model for overland flows are presented, especially for the bed and friction source terms, 3) impact of rainfall, infiltration, friction on overland flows and its determination approaches are reviewed, and 4) the further development directions of this kind of models are proposed