| 感潮河段水位过程预报探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋立松,魏高峰.感潮河段水位过程预报探讨[J].水科学进展,2000,11(3):302-306. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋立松 魏高峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江省钱塘江管理局, 浙江杭州310016; |
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| 摘 要： | 感潮河段水位过程同时受径流、潮流影响,其预报较为困难.将水位过程视为时间序列,用不同的模型进行了预报比较,认为以潮汐作用为主的水位预报可采用神经网络模型,对高水位预报可采用ARMA(2,1)模型,而对洪水作用为主的河道,各模型的预报能力均有待提高
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| 关 键 词： | 神经网络 时间序列 感潮河段 水位 预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 1999-03-22 |
Preliminary Study on the Wa ter Level Forecast in the River with T idal Effect |
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| SONG Li-song,WEI Gao-feng.Preliminary Study on the Wa ter Level Forecast in the River with T idal Effect[J].Advances in Water Science,2000,11(3):302-306. |
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| Authors: | SONG Li-song WEI Gao-feng |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Qiantang River Administration, Hangzhou 310016, China;2.Zhejian Dredgeing Company, Huzhou 313000, China |
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| Abstract: | Forecasting the water level with tidal effect is difficulty,because it is influenced by flood and tidal.This paper treats the water level as time series and compares thewater level forecasted by some model with observed,the result shows that the neural network model is suitable for tidal river and the ARMA(2,1) is suitable for high level forecasting,but for floodriver,the forecasting ability of all models should be improved. |
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| Keywords: | neural network time series tide reach level forecast |
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