| 长江上游干支流洪水遭遇分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈璐,郭生练,张洪刚,闫宝伟,刘心愿.长江上游干支流洪水遭遇分析[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):323-330. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈璐 郭生练 张洪刚 闫宝伟 刘心愿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 湖北武汉430072; |
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| 基金项目： | "十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目，国家自然科学基金资助项目，水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目前洪水遭遇研究仅限于简单的实测资料统计分析,尚缺系统有效的理论方法.基于多维Copula函数分别建立金沙江屏山站、岷江高场站、嘉陵江北碚站以及长江宜昌站的洪水发生时间和量级的联合分布.以此方法估计干支流洪水发生时间和量级的遭遇可能性及条件概率,并与实测资料的统计结果进行比较.结果表明,模型计算结果与实测相吻合,说明该...
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| 关 键 词： | 长江上游 洪水遭遇 copula函数 联合分布 条件概率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-06-21 |
Flood coincidence probability analysis for the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries |
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| CHEN Lu,GUO Sheng-lian,ZHANG Hong-gang,YAN Bao-wei,LIU Xin-yuan.Flood coincidence probability analysis for the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries[J].Advances in Water Science,2011,22(3):323-330. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Lu GUO Sheng-lian ZHANG Hong-gang YAN Bao-wei LIU Xin-yuan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;2.Hydrology Bureau of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China |
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| Abstract: | Flood coincidence probability analysis among different regions is quite important for flood design and control.The current flood coincidence probability analysis is based on the simple statistical analysis of observed data without theoretic methods.In this study,the daily flow data of four hydrological stations in the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries,including the Pingshan at the Jinsha River,Gaochang at the Min River,Beibei at the Jialing River and Yichang at the Yangtze River,are selected for ca... |
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| Keywords: | the upstream Yangtze River flood coincidence probability copula function joint distribution conditional probability |
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