长江下游夏季降水与东亚夏季风及春季太平洋海温的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料、NOAA月平均海表温度资料及中国站点逐日降水资料,研究了长江下游夏季降水、东亚夏季风(区分南海热带夏季风和副热带夏季风)及春季太平洋海温之间的关系。结果表明,南海夏季风强度与长江下游夏季降水量呈反相关,而副热带夏季风强度与长江下游夏季降水量呈正相关;春季赤道东太平洋海温与当年长江下游夏季降水存在正相关,是夏季长江下游夏季降水变化趋势的较好前期预测信号;南海夏季风和副热带夏季风强度对春季赤道东太平洋海温异常的响应是相反的。

Relations between Summer Rainfall over the Lower Reach of Yangtze River and East Asian Summer Monsoon as well as Sea Surface Temperature over the Pacific in Spring

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data,NOAA monthly sea surface temperature data and daily rainfall station data,connections between summer rainfall over the lower reach of Yangtze River,East Asian summer monsoon(including South China Sea summer monsoon and subtropical summer monsoon) and sea surface temperature over the Pacific in spring are studied in this paper.The Results show that the positive(negative) correlation exists between summer rainfall over the lower reach of Yangtze River and subtropical summer monsoon(South China Sea summer monsoon).The sea surface temperature over equatorial Pacific in spring may be a prophase signal to predict the following summer rainfall over the lower reach of Yangtze River because high correlation exists between the two elements.In addition,the response of strength for subtropical monsoon to the sea surface temperature over equatorial Pacific in spring.