应用二维冰雹云模式做冰雹预报

应用二维冰雹云模式,模拟分析了渭干河灌区一次冰雹云过程的流场结构和云中含水量等宏微物理量的分布及其演变,并用１９９５年７～８月的探空资料,进行冰雹预报试验。结果表明：本模式可以真实地模拟出适合于冰雹云生长的环境流场、温度场、湿度场的分布及其演变过程,还可模拟出多单体雹云的发生、发展演变过程。根据大气层结稳定度,选择不同的热扰动强度,可使空报次数明显减少,预报准确率提高到６９．３％。

HAIL FORECAST BY USING OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL HAIL CLOUD MODEL

This paper stimulated and analysed the distribution and their evolution of macroscale and microphysical measurements such as structure and water content of hailstrom, which occurred in Weigan River Irregation Area, by using of two-dimentional hail cloud model. Hail forecast experiments were carried on with sounding data during July and August in 1995. The results show that this model could really stimulate the distribution and evolution of the streamline field, temperature and humidity field, suited to hail cloud growth. It could also stimulate the occurance and development of muti-cell hail cloud. According to the atmospheric layer stability, different heat disturbance indensity was selected, the hail forecast correct rate increase to 69.3 %.