杭州市高温致灾因子危险性风险区划

利用杭州市各气象观测站和自动气象站多年气温资料,以及数理统计方法和Arc GIS空间分析技术,采用极端高温与高温日数作为高温致灾因子风险的主要评价指标,分析杭州市高温天气的气候特征,对杭州市高温灾害致灾因子危险性进行了区划。结果表明,杭州市高温天气灾害较为严重,常出现38.0℃以上的高温,40.0℃以上也不少见,最高达到42.9℃;高温日数较长,最长持续时间超过50 d。杭州市高温灾害危险性风险高值区大部分集中在杭州城区所在的东北部平原,包括上城区、下城区、拱墅区、江干区、滨江区、西湖区西南部、萧山区及余杭区大部。另外,富春江、分水江等沿江两岸,西南部的河谷、盆地以及中部地势较复杂的谷地、盆地等低海拔地区也处于高温危险性中高值区域;北部天目山、西北部昱岭及白际山、西南部千里岗山及龙门山脉高海拔地区均属于危险性风险低值区域。

RISK ZONING OF HIGH-TEMPERATURE DISASTER-INDUCING FACTORS IN HANGZHOU

Based on temperature observation data in Hangzhou, the mathematical statistical methods and the Arc GIS spatial analysis techniques are employed to analyze the climatic characteristics of the hot weather in Hangzhou City by considering the day numbers of extreme high temperature and high temperature as the main evaluating indicators of high-temperature disaster-inducing factors. The results show that the high-temperature disaster in Hangzhou is serious, with the high temperature often exceeding 38 ℃, even exceeding 40.0℃, and the highest temperature reaches 42.9 ℃. The high-temperature weather lasts long time, with the maximum duration up to 50 days. The results also show that the high values of high-temperature hazard risk mostly occur in the northeastern plains of Hangzhou, including Shangcheng District, Xiacheng District, Gongshu District, Jianggan District, Binjiang District, southwest of West Lake District, and most parts of Yuhang and Xiaoshan District, also including regions along Fuchun River and Fenshui River, valleys and basins of southwest Hangzhou, and more complex terrain regions of central Hangzhou, such as the valleys, basins and other low-lying regions. In contrast, the mountain areas, such as Tianmu Mountain, Yuling, Baiji Mountain, Qianli Mountain and Longmen Mountain, are areas with low risk.