印尼苏门答腊大地震和珠江大洪水的关系研究

1991年,郭增建发现1912～1914年缅甸、云南峨山和安达曼群岛3次7级以上地震发生后产生大量水汽,导致1915年珠江特大洪水.2005年3月26日,王涌泉向有关方面反映苏门答腊巨震后,珠江可能发生大洪水,6月珠江果然出现了大洪水.巨震引起地壳释放出携热水汽,叠加到西南气流上,季风爆发后,被带到中国的华南地区形成暴雨.由于地下裂隙复杂和不畅,放气可滞后1 a.2004年12月～2005年12月南海地区850 hPa水汽通量距平明显呈现出高峰值.杜乐天等判读美国MOPITT的850 hPa高度地球排气图,发现2002年9～11月印尼上空几百万km2有高出常年10倍以上的C0强烈排气.震前数月,印度洋东北部有持续性“长波辐射“.对苏门答腊震区地震前后的潜热通量的时空变化过程的分析,发现了在地震前20 d里,震中附近潜热通量发生了显著的异常变化.巨灾预测属世界科学难题.重大自然灾害一经发生,极易借助自然生态系统之间的相互依存、制约关系,引发出一系列灾害-由损失较轻灾害扩展为损失较大灾害,从一个地域空间扩散到另一个更广阔的地域空间.因此,利用卫星遥感、红外技术分析大地震前后水汽变化,进一步探索地气耦合机制,是一个关键科技问题.

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE AND THE ZHUJIANG FLOOD

In 1991,Guo Zengjian found that much water vapor was produced after three earthquakes above Ms 7.0 occurring in Burma,Yunnan,Andamanese Islands,which led to Zhujiang rather heavy flood in 1915.On March 26,2005,Wang Yongquan said heavy flood might occur in Zhujiang after the serious Sumatra Earthquake,which came into true in June.The water vapor produced by the serious earthquake,is brought to North China to form heavy rain.Water vapor may be produced one year later because of the underground rocks' fissures complex and obstructive.From December 2004 to December 2005,the water vapor flux was 850 hPa,obviously to be the peak value.Du Letian and other persons found that the CO content was over 10 times higher than usual in several million km2 above Indonesia from September to November,2002,by reading the American MOPITT global vapor map at the height of 850 hPa.Several months before the earthquake,there was continuous Outgoing Longwave Radiation in the northeast of Indian Ocean.By analysis of the space-time variety course of the latent heat flux before and after the Sumatra earthquake area,it is found that the latent heat flux about the epicenter changed anomaly and obviously,20 days before the earthquake.Tremendous disaster forecast is a scientific difficult problem in all over the world.If tremendous disaster took place,series of disasters would be led to.The key scientific problems are as follows: to analyze the water vapor variety before and after earthquake by remote sensing technology and infrared technique,to survey the content of water vapor by observation on the ground and GPS observation station,to research the coupling mechanism between the stratum and vapor.