农业气象灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

农业气象灾害风险研究既是灾害学和农业气象学领域中研究的热点, 又是当前政府相关管理部门和农业生产部门亟需的应用性较强的课题。农业气象灾害风险评估的理论和方法进展很快, 但尚没有文献对相关研究做出较为系统的论述。为全面了解农业气象灾害风险评估的研究现状, 在综合分析近30年来相关文献的基础上, 对农业气象灾害风险评估方面所取得的研究成果进行了总结和评述, 指出了当前研究的一些不足, 并对今后农业气象灾害风险评估研究的趋势进行了展望。首先对农业气象灾害风险评估研究的历史进行了回顾;重点阐述了农业气象灾害风险评估的主要内容, 包括致灾因子的危险性评估, 承灾体脆弱或易损性评估, 灾情期望损失评估和灾害风险综合评估;归纳出农业气象灾害风险评估研究中采用的3类主要方法——基于指标的综合评估方法、基于数据的概率评估方法以及基于情景模拟的评估方法;最后对农业气象灾害风险评估目前存在的问题和未来可能的研究方向进行了探讨。

Prospects and progresses in the research of risk assessment of agro-meteorological disasters

The research on the agro-meteorological disaster risk is a hotspot of Catastrophology, as well as a practical task of urgent needs by the government. Though the assessment methods and theory of agro-meteorological disaster risk advances rapidly, a systematically review still remains vacant in this area. In order to have a thorough grasp of the current research status of the agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment, we have summarized and reviewed the present research achievements based on the relevant literatures of the recent 30 years, through which, we pointed out some existing shortcomings and put forward several research prospects of the agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment in the future. At the beginning, we reviewed the research history of the agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment, and then we elaborated the main content of the agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment, including the hazard risk assessment, vulnerability assessment, disaster damage assessment and comprehensive assessment, which could overall be summed up into three methods: the evaluation based on indexes, evaluation based on sample data, and the scenario simulation assessment method. In the end, we discussed shortcomings existing in the present research and the possible future research fields in the agro-meteorological disaster risk. This study would provide a reference for future agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment and promote its progress.