数值预报/卫星反演/数据同化循环试验

文中介绍了数值预报／卫星反演／数据同化的循环试验。由于湿度反演方法的改进，使得湿度反演产品的精度有所提高，所以首先进行了湿度廓线参与同化过程的试验。结果表明，反演的水汽产品对台风中心强度有正影响，经过４次同化过程２４ｈ预报模拟的台风加深与实况比较一致。４８ｈ预报台风中心减弱趋势在低层显得不足，但比业务预报有明显改进。２４与４８ｈ预报的总降水量和暴雨中心强度比未加入反演水汽产品的预报有明显增加，且接近实况。

AN EXPERIMENT ON NWP/SATELLITE RETRIEVAL/DATA ASSIMILATION

An experiment on NWP/Satellite retrieval/Data assimilation was described in the paper. Since the method of water vapor retrieval was improved and the accuracy of retrieval relative humidity(RH) has been increased, the retrieval RH was only used in assimilation. The result shows after 4 step 6 h assimilation the typhoon intensity modelled was more consistent with that of the real one than without retrieval RH. Although the trend of decreasing of the typhoon intensity forecasted for 48 h ahead is weaker on the low levels, it is better than the modelling without retrieval RH.It is evident that the retrieval RH had positive impact on the analysis and forecast of typhoon intensity. The forecast both 24 and 48 h ahead of total precipitation and the rainstorm intensity in the centre of rain areas were increasing and close to the real ones when the retrieval RH was used.