全球变暖停滞的形成机制研究进展

工业革命以来人类活动带来的温室气体日益增加,导致全球气温持续升高。然而,1998年以来全球变暖出现了停滞(hiatus)现象。本文回顾了近年来有关全球变暖停滞的研究进展,着重讨论变暖停滞的物理机制。目前有关变暖停滞的机制有两种观点:一种观点认为全球变暖停滞是由于外强迫造成的,另一种则认为是自然变率产生的。外强迫的观点主要归结为太阳活动强迫、火山喷发气溶胶强迫、人类活动产生的气溶胶强迫以及平流层水汽强迫四种作用。自然变率的观点则认为人类活动产生的多余热量进入到深海,尤其是海表700 m以下,且认为主要是由于海洋的作用。持这种观点的又分两种意见,一种认为是太平洋年代际振荡的影响,尤其是赤道东太平洋海表温度变冷;另一种则认为是大西洋经向翻转流的影响。目前主流观点认为,自然变率是产生全球变暖停滞的主要机制,人类活动产生的多余热量进入到深海,不过多余热量进入哪些海域尚存争议。

A review of recent studies on global warming hiatus

Since the industrial revolution,the content of anthropogenic greenhouse gas is increasing.As a result,the global surface air temperature grows rapidly.However,the global surface air temperature has stalled since 1998,despite the greenhouse gas steadily increases.This paper reviewed the latest research progress on this phenomenon,especially the mechanism of the global warming hiatus.There are two main viewpoints on the mechanism,namely,the external forcing and natural variability.The former includes the influence of solar activity,volcanic aerosol particles,man-made aerosol particles and stratospheric water vapor forcing.Scientists in the opinion of natural variability hold the idea that the missing heat produced by human activity has entered the deep ocean,especially the layer below 700 m.They believe that the oceans play a key role in the global warming hiatus.There are two main ideas for that:Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),especially the cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific,and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC).The widely accepted idea on the mechanism of recent global warming hiatus is natural variability.The missing heat has entered the deep ocean.But it still remains controversial which ocean basins gain the missing heat.