| GFS模式地形高度偏差对地面2m气温预报的影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 智协飞,吴佩,俞剑蔚,慕建利,赵倩.GFS模式地形高度偏差对地面2m气温预报的影响[J].大气科学学报,2019,42(5):652-659. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 智协飞 吴佩 俞剑蔚 慕建利 赵倩 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 江苏 南京 210044;南京大气科学联合研究中心, 江苏 南京 210008,南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 江苏 南京 210044,南京大气科学联合研究中心, 江苏 南京 210008;江苏省气象台, 江苏 南京 210008,中国气象局 公共气象服务中心, 北京 100081,中国气象局 公共气象服务中心, 北京 100081 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 北极阁开放研究基金南京大气科学联合研究中心重点项目（NJCAR2016ZD04）；中国气象局公共气象服务中心委托项目"基于统计降尺度的多模式精细化预报系统"；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用2016年1月1日—12月31日全球预报系统(GFS,Global Forecasting System)1～5 d的2 m气温预报资料,以及同期中国地面气象站2 m气温观测资料,研究模式地形高度偏差对地面2 m气温预报的影响。结果表明,较大模式地形高度偏差可严重影响2 m气温模式预报性能,导致较大预报误差。随着模式预报时效延长,2 m气温预报均方根误差也略有增加。比较模式地形高度偏差和预报时效对于模式预报性能的影响,发现模式地形高度偏差对于模式预报效果的影响更加显著。两种地形订正方案,即不做温度垂直订正的线性回归以及对温度进行垂直订正的线性回归都能显著减小2 m气温模式预报的误差,后者的订正效果更好。
|
| 关 键 词： | GFS 2 m气温 模式地形高度偏差 垂直订正 预报误差 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/3/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/5/29 0:00:00 |
Impact of topographic altitude bias of the GFS model on the 2 m air temperature forecast |
| |
| ZHI Xiefei,WU Pei,YU Jianwei,MU Jianli and ZHAO Qian.Impact of topographic altitude bias of the GFS model on the 2 m air temperature forecast[J].大气科学学报,2019,42(5):652-659. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHI Xiefei WU Pei YU Jianwei MU Jianli and ZHAO Qian |
| |
| Affiliation: | Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC), Nanjing 210044, China;Nanjing Joint Center for Atmospheric Research(NJCAR), Nanjing 210008, China,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC), Nanjing 210044, China,Nanjing Joint Center for Atmospheric Research(NJCAR), Nanjing 210008, China;Weather Observatory of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210008, China,Public Meteorological Service Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China and Public Meteorological Service Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
| |
| Abstract: | In this study,based on the 1-5 d forecasts of Global Forecasting System(GFS),as well as the observations from meteorological stations throughout China,the effect of the model topographic altitude bias (TAB) on the surface air temperature forecast is investigated.The results show that if the TAB is excessively large,it may severely affect the forecast skill,and lead to excessively large forecast error.As the forecast lead time becomes longer,the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the 2 m air temperature forecast increases slightly as well.By comparing the effect of the TAB and the increasing forecast lead time on the model forecast performance,the effect of the TAB on the model forecast skill becomes greater.Both two types of calibration schemes,namely the linear regression with and without vertical correction can reduce the model forecast errors,while the former has better calibration performance. |
| |
| Keywords: | GFS 2 m air temperature forecast model topographic altitude bias vertical correction calibration scheme |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《大气科学学报》下载全文 |
|
