| 2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 高菊霞,李建芳.2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析[J].山西气象,2005(2):5-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高菊霞 李建芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省太原市气象局 山西太原030082
(赵彩萍，张忠效)，山西省太原市国土局 山西太原030002
(马增荣)，山西省太原市气象局 山西太原030082(荆肖军) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 地质环境 降水 概率模型 预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5732(2005)02-0005-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年2月3日 |
The Study of Forecast about Geological Disaster Grade |
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| Zhao Caiping,Ma Zengrong,Zhang Zhongxiao,Jin Xiaojun.The Study of Forecast about Geological Disaster Grade[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2005(2):5-8. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Caiping Ma Zengrong Zhang Zhongxiao Jin Xiaojun |
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| Abstract: | According to the data of precipitati on during flood season and 789geological disaster examples happening in Taiyuan region,beginning from the background of geological environment and supported by MAPGI S,based on the systemic study of region al dangerous layout about geological disaster and inducement in Taiyuan,this paper proposed a precise appraising method about geological environmen t probability and got an important con-clusion about factors that impact ge ological disaster and built the fore casting model of geological disaste r and making the forecast grade criterion s and the forecast rules.The forecasting result be accords with the reali ty by testing in the forecast. |
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| Keywords: | geological disaster geological environment precipitation probability model forecast |
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