| 运城市终霜冻预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王咏梅.运城市终霜冻预报方法[J].山西气象,2003(1):15-15,36. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王咏梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省运城市气象局 山西运城044000 |
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| 摘 要： | 对运城市终霜冻资料时间序列进行了周期分析，再利用基于预测误差平方和(PRESS)准则的逐步回归周期分析方法建立运城市终霜冻预报模型，预测终霜冻出现的日期，经检验和试报表明，该模型预测效果较好，具有实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 运城市 终霜冻预报 预报方法 时间序列 周期分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5732(2003)01-0015-01 |
Forecast Method for End Frost in Yuncheng |
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| Wang Yongmei.Forecast Method for End Frost in Yuncheng[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2003(1):15-15,36. |
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| Authors: | Wang Yongmei |
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| Abstract: | According to periodic analysis of time series of end frost data,a forecast model for end frost was built in Yuncheng,which used step-by-step regression periodic analysis method based on the forecast error square sum.It could be used to forecast the date of end frost,its forecast effect is better and has the practical value. |
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| Keywords: | Frost Forecast method Model |
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