区域气候自忆模式中记忆系数的某些特征及汛期降水预报分析

根据制作中国汛期降水业务预报的需要, 调整了区域气候自忆预测模式的边界条件及计算格式并进行了数值试验; 讨论了模式中记忆系数的线性趋势及周期变化等特征; 对1988~1997年中国汛期降水分布预报试验和1998年实际预报结果进行了分析, 结果表明, 自忆模式对汛期降水年际预报具有一定的能力.

Physical Implication of Memory Coeffients in Regional Climatic Self-memorial Model and Forecasting Experiments for Seasonal Precipitation in Summer

WT5BZ] The boundary conditions and calculating scheme of the regional climatic Self Memorial model, were adjusted to operational forecast for seasonal precipitation in summer in China and the numerical experiments were carried out. The periodic variation of the memory coefficients in the model was analyzed and potential relationship between the coefficients and the other physical factors in the climatic system were also discussed. The hindcasts for 1988 to 1997 and operational forecast for 1998 show that the model is useful in forecasting seasonal precipitation.