攀枝花市区33年气温变化趋势研究

本文利用攀枝花市区1977~2009年年平均气温、年平均极端最高气温、年平均极端最低气温以及逐日最高气温资料,运用气候趋势系数、累计距平、MK突变检验等方法研究分析了攀枝花市区气温变化趋势,主要结论有:(1)33年来该地区年平均气温呈现弱的下降趋势,与全球升温趋势相悖。(2)年平均极端最低气温升温趋势率为0.24℃/(10a),大大高于年平均极端最高气温升温趋势率0.09℃/(10a)。(3)高温日数及热积温均呈下降趋势,其中热积温下降趋势率为8.4℃/(10a)。(4)市区炳草岗年平均气温相对稳定,不存在突变现象。 

Variations of Air Temperature in Panzhihua City in Recent 33 Years

Using Panzhihua city 19772009 annual average temperature, annual mean maximum temperature, annual mean minimum temperature and extreme daily maximum temperature data, climate tendency coefficient, total anomaly and MK mutations inspection analysis methods were used to study the Variations of temperature, the main conclusions are as follows:(1):during recent 33 years this area annual average temperature showed a weak downward trend, contrary to the global warming trend. (2) the average extreme minimum temperature warming trend rate of 0.24℃/(10a), much higher than the average maximum temperature in the warming rate of 0.09℃/(10a). (3) high temperature days and hot accumulated temperature were decreased, and the decreased of hot accumulated temperature was 8.4℃/(10a). (4) Bingcaogang annual average temperature is relatively stable, there is no mutations.