| 概率变换法在南平地区暴雨预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周信禹.概率变换法在南平地区暴雨预报中的应用[J].气象科学,2000,20(4):522-525. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周信禹 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建省气象台,福州,350001 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在大－暴雨ｍｏｓ预报中应用概率变换法进行对比分析，结果表明：概率变换法能提高预报因子与预报对象之间的线相关性，扩大了预报因子的选取范围，改善了方程中的因子组成结构，使方程的历史拟合率和预报准确率有明显的提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 概率变换 mos预报 暴雨预报 预报因子 数值预报 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999-06-27 |
THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY-CHANGED IN THE HARD RAIN FORECAST IN NANPING AEAR |
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| Zhou Xinyu.THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY-CHANGED IN THE HARD RAIN FORECAST IN NANPING AEAR[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2000,20(4):522-525. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Xinyu |
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| Abstract: | The method of probability-changed is used in the MOS forecast of hard rain and storm. It shows the linear correlation between the predictands and the predictiors is more significant, so that the set of selecting predictors is widened. significant The composition of the predictiors is more reasonable in the predictive equation, and the fitting rate and the forecast accuracy are obviously improved. |
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| Keywords: | Probability-changed MOS Forecast the Research of Method |
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