数值预报产品和客观预报方法预报能力检验

利用天气预报业务中使用的JMH、MM5、中央气象台、MOS以及预报员5种预报产品资料，对2003年10月至2004年9月绍兴市降水和气温预报按自然天气季节、量级和主要影响天气系统进行了检验评估。结果表明：对中雨及以下量级的降水预报，JMH和中央气象台降水预报准确率较高，但对大雨及以上量级降水预报，各种方法都不太理想。冷锋、气旋和台风影响下的降水预报准确率明显高于暖锋和副高影响下的降水。MM5气温预报系统性偏低，MOS气温预报则呈现一定的季节性。

Verification of Prediction Capability of NWP Products and Objective Forecast Methods

Based on the products of JMH,MM5,NMC,MOS and forecaster's subjective forecast, precipitation and temperature prediction in Shaoxing City are verified in terms of natural weather season,grade and main synoptic system.The results show that the TS score of JMA and NMC is better from light rain to middle rain,but the TS score of all products is not satisfactory for heavy rain prediction.When the rain is caused by cold front,cyclone or typhoon,the rainfall forecast skill is higher than warm front or subtropical high.As for temperature prediction, MM5 is lower systematically and MOS responds score varies with season.