2005年8月16日天津大暴雨成因分析

运用FY-2C卫星资料和由NCEP/NCAR再分析资料计算的多种物理量场,初步分析了2005年8月16日天津大暴雨的成因：此次大暴雨发生在低槽冷锋前部,对流层中层低槽和副热带高压的维持、对流层低层切变线的出现、近地面层冷空气的扩散侵入、对流层中低层强盛的不稳定能量以及充沛而又深厚的水汽等天气条件的有效合理配置,造就了这次历史罕见的大暴雨。降水显著的中尺度特性与中尺度云团相对应。同时,对比分析了15日发生在河北东北部、京津地区的另一个降水较弱、对流天气强的对流云团,结果显示它们形成发展中存在差异,为今后两类天气的预报提供了一些线索。

Analysis of "2005.8.16" Heavy Rain in Tianjin

Based on FY-2C meteorological satellite data and several physics-fields calculated by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the causation of the heavy rainfall event on August 16, 2005 in Tianjin is analyzed. This event occurred in a cold front with trough. And the infrequent rainfall was produced by the reasonable allocation of the trough and the subtropical high in the middle troposphere, the shear line in the low troposphere, the incursion of the cold air in the surface, the strong instability energy in the lower / middle troposphere and the sufficient water vapor. The mesoscale characteristics of the event are associated with the mesoscale convective cloud clusters. At the same time, another convective cloud clusters with weak precipitation but strong convection in the north-eastern Hebei Province, Beijing and Tianjin on the 15th are compared and analyzed. There are some differences between them in environmental conditions of their formation and development. It could provide some forecasting information for two kinds of weather in the future.