2006年春季南北疆沙尘暴的气候预测

利用1961～2005年北疆9个气象站和南疆15个气象站逐日沙尘暴日数、平均气温、气温日较差、平均地面温度、地气温差、平均风速、降水量、平均相对湿度,计算得到北疆和南疆春季沙尘暴日数和前期气候要素,通过相关分析得到北疆和南疆春季沙尘暴的气候影响因子。利用前期气候影响因子分别建立了北疆和南疆春季沙尘暴日数气候预测方程6个。预计2006年春季,北疆沙尘暴日数1.4～2d,南疆沙尘暴日数7d,它们虽比历年平均值偏低,但高于近15a的平均值。

Climate Prediction of Spring Sandstorm of the North Xinjiang and South Xinjiang in 2006

In this paper,the spring sandstorm days and the former climate factors are calculated by using climate elements of the nine meteorology stations of North Xinjiang and fifteen meteorology stations of South Xinjiang during 1961 -2005,including daily sandstorm day,average air temperature,daily range of air temperature,average ground temperature,difference between ground temperature and air temperature,average wind speeds,precipitation,average relative humidity,and then climate factors affected spring sandstorm are obtained through correlation analysis. Furthermore,six climate prediction equations of spring sandstorm day of the North Xinjiang and South Xinjiang are respectively established by using former climate factors affected sandstorm.It is predicted that sandstorm days of North Xinjiang will be 1.4-2d,South Xinjiang will be 7d,which are lower than average value of previous years and still higher than average value of recent fifteen years.