1960-2019年沙雅县极端天气的气候变化特征分析

采用一元线性回归分析和基于Matlab的Mann-kendal气候突变检验和morlet小波分析等方法，开展沙雅气象站50年常规气象要素和极端天气指数研究分析。结果显示：(1)气温增温趋势明显，最低气温上升对气温增温贡献大。(2)降水量变化趋势不明显，在20世纪80年代强度变化大。(3)历年日照时数显著下降，有高频振荡周期。(4)风速下降显著，春季风速下降速率最快；全年主导风向为东北风，除此之外夏季还多出现北风，秋冬季节多出现偏西风。(5)夜间最低气温增温明显，且增温速率高于白天，极端低温日数减少，沙雅县气温呈上升趋势；降水日数和各量级降水日数趋势变化不明显。

Research and analysis of climate change trend and extreme weather in shaya county from 1966 to 2015

Abstract:This paper adopts the method of unary linear regressionon ,and used Matlab software to implement Mann-kendal climate mutation test and morlet wavelet analysis, to carry out research and analysis on conventional meteorological elements and extreme weather indexes of the Meteorological station in shaya for 50 years. The results show that :(1) The trend of temperature increase was obvious, A rise in minimum temperatures led to a rise in temperatures. (2) The change of precipitation was not obvious, and the precipitation intensity changed greatly in the 1980s. (3) The number of sunshine hours decreased significantly over the years, and have high frequency oscillations. (4) The wind speed drop significantly, and the fastest fall in spring; The main wind direction was the notheast. In addition, there were more north winds in summer ,there were more west wind in autumn and winter. (5) The minimum temperature at night increase significantly, and the rate of temperature increase was higher than that in the daytime. The number of extremely low temperature days decrease, the temperature in shaya county showed an upward trend. There was not obvious change in the number of precipitation days and the different precipitation levels days.