太原雷暴大风潜势预报方法研究

利用太原市7个国家观测站实况、探空以及MICAPS等资料，对1998—2018年5—9月太原的雷暴大风进行天气学分型，选取雷暴大风的消空因子以及不同天气型下的预报因子并确定其阈值，利用指标叠套法，建立雷暴大风潜势预报方法，并进行预报检验。结果表明：(1)选取700 hPa温度露点差、850 hPa与500 hPa的温差、条件性稳定度指数和混合相层4个环境参数作为消空因子并确定了消空阈值。（2）将雷暴大风分为高空槽型、冷涡型、切变线型、西北气流型和副高边缘型5类，选取了5类天气型下雷暴大风的预报因子，利用指标叠套法，建立了太原雷暴大风潜势预报方法。(3)运用雷暴大风潜势预报方法开展历史样本回报检验和2019-2020年试预报检验，取得了较好的预报效果。

Research on potential forecast method of thunderstorm gale in Taiyuan

Based on the observation data of 7 national stations in Taiyuan, sounding data and the MICAPS data, the classification on synoptic meteorology of thunderstorm gale was performed from the selected thunderstorm gales that have appeared from May to September between 1998 and 2018. The decreasing FAR factors and the forecasting factors of different synoptic patterns were chosen, and the corresponding threshold value was determined later. The potential forecast method of thunderstorm gale was established and tested based on the method of overlapping sets of indices. The results were showed as follows. First, four environment parameters can be used as the decreasing FAR factors and their threshold value were given. That is, depression of the dew point at 700 hPa isobaric surface, temperature differences between the isobaric surface of 850 hPa and 500 hPa, conditional stability index and mixed layer height. Second, the processes of thunderstorm gale were divided into five patterns, namely upper trough, cold vortex, shear line, northwest currents and edge of subtropical high. The forecast factors of thunderstorm gale under five synoptic patterns were chosen to establish the potential forecast method of thunderstorm in Taiyuan through the method of overlapping sets of indices. Third, the potential forecast method of thunderstorm gale was proved to have a good performance through historical sample return, the forecast verification from 2019 to 2020.