| 中期延伸天气预报方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴曼丽,陆忠艳,王瀛.中期延伸天气预报方法研究[J].气象与环境学报,2007,23(2):6-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴曼丽 陆忠艳 王瀛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.东北大学资源与土木工程学院 沈阳110015;2.沈阳中心气象台 沈阳110016 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对未来8—17 d中期预报方法短缺的现状,将数值预报产品与历史资料有效结合和应用,以天气学、统计学为基础,通过关键区相似预报等方法,研制出了一种通过计算环流相似和气候概率实现中期延伸预报的方法。结果表明:中期延伸天气预报方法能够反映未来天气演变和降水、气温的总体变化趋势。经过检验,认为可以应用于中期天气预报业务。
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| 关 键 词： | 中期延伸天气预报 关键区 环流相似 预报方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-7-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-07-112006-10-28 |
Study on medium-range extended weather forecast method |
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| WU Manli,LU Zhongyan,WANG Ying.Study on medium-range extended weather forecast method[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2007,23(2):6-10. |
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| Authors: | WU Manli LU Zhongyan WANG Ying |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Resource and Civil Engineering College of Northeastern University;Shenyang 110015;2.Liaoning Meteorological Observatory;Shenyang 110016 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the synoptic meteorology,statistics and analogical forecast of key area as well as numerical forecasting products and historical data,a method for realizing medium-range weather forecast was developed,in terms of circulation similarity and climatic probability because of the shortage of medium-range weather forecast method.The results showed that medium-range weather forecast method could reflect general trends of future weather,precipitation and temperature variation,which could be applied to the medium-range weather forecast operation. |
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| Keywords: | Medium-range weather forecast Key areas Circulation similarity Forecast method |
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